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# Probability

• ### Tan on Luck versus Chance

… how can you say luck and chance are the same thing? Chance is the first step you take, luck is what comes afterwards.

Amy Tan (1952 - )

• ### Mourning Dove on Chance

Life is a gamble, a chance, a mere guess. Cast a line and reel in a splendid rainbow trout or a slippery eel.

Mourning Dove (1884 – 1936)

• ### Tyler on Chance

I love to think about chance — about how one little overheard word, one pebble in a shoe, can change the universe.

Anne Tyler (1941 - )

• ### Manley on Revealing Secrets

Time and chance reveal all secrets.

Delarivier Manley (1663 – 1724)

• ### Huggan on Poker

What I love about poker is the tension, not the actual winning or losing, but the tension between random chance and changeless numbers. Slap, slap, slap, slap, cards dealt and destiny beckons, two-and-a-half million different hands in a deck.

Isabel Huggan (1943 - )

• ### Evans on Uncertainty

Ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities.

Mary Anne Evans  (1819 – 1880)

• ### Smith on Conditional Probability

Did you know that people who meet at least three different times within twenty-four hour period are ninety-eight percent more likely to meet again?

Jennifer E. Smith (1980 - )

• ### Geiringer on Building Knowledge

Indeed, whatever we propose relates to a certain state of our knowledge, factual knowledge as well as epistemology.

Hilda Geiringer (1893 – 1973)

• ### Availability Heuristic

by Lawrence Mark Lesser

ourselves
as replaceable, exchangeable objects,
arbitrary members of a population.

We’re thinking: without loss
of generality, let the person be
me who today matches a birthday,
wins the lottery or falls in love.

• ### A Given A

Lyrics and music ©1997, 2007 Lawrence M. Lesser​

Sportscaster bragged all night
'Bout the one prediction he got right:
He said, "The more they've scored, the more they've won."
Probability of A given A is 1.
Probability of A given A is 1.

Writer made his Bible a find-a-word:
"TWIN", "TOWERS" and "PLANE" converged
When he let computers run.
Probability of A given A is 1.

You'll find reason, you'll find fate explaining why your side won
Like nothin' to do if nothin's new under the sun.

"Fear breeds fear, war breeds war,"
Said the call-in poll on Channel 4:
Father's legacy to son.
Probability of A given A is 1.
Probability of A given A,
Possibility of A given A,
All the same to me: always points to one.