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Probability

  • Lyrics © Mary McLellan
    may sing to the tune of "All I Wanna Do" by Sheryl Crow

    Probability of at least one
    Listing all the combinations is not fun

    Probability of at least one
    Listing all the combinations is not fun

    Probability of at least one
    Easier with…
    One minus the probability of none

    Repeat

  • Lyrics © Mary McLellan
    may sing to the tune of "Bare Necessities"

    If you do many trials
    Many, many trials
    The cumulative probability
    It will settle down to the true probability
    The law of large numbers you see

    Repeat

  • Lyrics © Mary McLellan
    may sing to the tune of "Oh My Darlin', Clementine"

    Independent, independent, independent
    When the fact that you are one thing
    Does not change the rate

    Independent, independent, independent
    When the fact that you are one thing
    Does not change the rate

  •  

    Like many of us, Dorian struggles every morning to get out of bed and go to work. But not for the reason you think. Dorian is over 100 years old working at the Magnolia Life Assurance Company. His bosses ask him to find data and information on the life expectancy of everyone in his city. The probability of dying is generally low but Dorian notices an odd spike in deaths recently. Why is that? This story discusses the growth rate of populations as birth and death rates both shrink.

  • Katie was assigned to research a man who has mysteriously been living since 1894. Instead of doing that, she falls in love with him, not caring that he is way too old for her. She wants him to finally say the three magical words but there’s catch: Rick does not speak. In fact, he hasn’t spoken in sixty years but why not? This short story explores life tables and the expected value of an annuity.

  • Twelve years ago, Amos’s mother Bonita died in a nursing home. Now, Amos has reached success in his career as an actuary but that comes with a price. A mysterious death in his office leads Amos to pick up where his co-worker left off. Amos discovers a huge secret which caused his co-worker to be killed. Through the use of data analysis and his knowledge of sampling distributions, Amos must figure out why Baby Boomers are suddenly dying and try not to get killed in the process.

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