Jan: I predict conventional p-value usage will decrease.
Lainie: You sound like a psychic.
Jan: How so?
Lainie: The "p" should be silent!
Larry Lesser
Jan: I predict conventional p-value usage will decrease.
Lainie: You sound like a psychic.
Jan: How so?
Lainie: The "p" should be silent!
Larry Lesser
Lyrics & Music © 2014 Greg Crowther
If every gal I’ve met is a hypothesis
Who might turn out to be the mate I’ve sought,
And if I were to yield
To the conventions of my field,
Then you would be referred to as H-naught...
CHORUS:
You’re my null, after all; you’re a theory in the making,
So robust to every test -- my hypothesis of choice.
You account for the past; you’re a vision of the future;
And when I feel confused, you’re my signal through the noise.
My life has been an uncontrolled experiment --
A source of all too many scattered plots.
But you provide a line
With an R-squared of point-nine;
Yes, you and you alone connect my dots...
CHORUS
One can never prove a null
In a finite length of time;
Each finding simply strengthens it or not.
But if I see trends emerge --
And let’s just say I do --
I’d be crazy not to publish what I’ve got...
CHORUS [twice]
Lyrics © 2018 Lawrence M. Lesser and Dennis K. Pearl
may sing to the tune of Kool and the Gang's "Celebration!"
Yahoo!
Simulation
Yahoo!
This is our simulation
Sim-u-late new groups, again!
(let's simulate)
(then) rep-li-cate the test, again!
(let's rep-li-cate)
We're comparing group means right here,
A distribution of samples makes it clear.
So find the frac-tion of values further out:
That's going to the p-value, no doubt!
Come on now, sim-u-la-tion
Let’s all simulate how groups are assigned
Sim-u-la-tion
We will investigate how null does align
Do groups differ from each other?
It's up to you, and what you measure
It is time to simulate, again!
Yahoo!
It’s a simulation
Yahoo!
Sim-u-late new groups, again!
(it’s a simulation)
(then) rep-li-cate the test, again!
(let's rep-li-cate)
Since a flight simulator uses simulations for learning decision-making in flying, how about using one to teach simulation-based inference? That could make a great pilot program!
Larry Lesser
Lyrics © 2015 by Larry Lesser, music by Larry Lesser and Dominic Dousa
H-O is called the null,
It's the status quo, conservative and dull.
The null is that you're innocent when you're on trial,
That's just our judicial style.
So evidence is gathered, the data summarized:
They deliberate on which verdict is wise.
"Fail to reject the null" is a verdict to acquit.
"Rejection of the null" is a verdict to convict.
If you "fail to reject" the null could still be false;
A "not guilty" verdict doesn't prove you have no faults.
A Type One error is to falsely convict.
A Type Two error is to falsely acquit.
If the trial has high power, the odds are good.
It will convict when it should.
Courtroom analogy helps us out
With hypothesis tests, beyond a reasonable doubt!