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Probability

  • The generation of random numbers is too important to be left to chance.

    Robert R. Coveyou (1915 - 1996)

  • The theory of probabilities is simply the science of logic quantitatively treated.

    Charles Saunders Peirce (1839 - 1914)

  • The words "model" and "mode" have, indeed, the same root; today, model building is science a la mode.

    Abraham Kaplan (1918 - 1993)

  • Chance is only the measure of our ignorance.

    Jules Henri Poincare (1854 - 1912)

  • Lyric ©2001 Lawrence Mark Lesser
    may sing to tune of "Happy Birthday to You" (Mildred J Hill and Patty Smith Hill)

    Happy birthday to you--
    Bring another 22:
    Then we'll have even chances
    Of a match in this room...
    Or many more!

    Happy birthday to me--
    Bring another two-fifty-three:
    Then I'll have even chances
    Someone matches with ME...
    Or many more!

  • Lyric copyright Mark Glickman
    may sing to tune of "Mr. Tambourine Man" (Bob Dylan)

    Hey Probability Man, flip a coin for me,
    I don't study and I never really learned how to.
    Hey Probability Man, roll those dice for me,
    As you're walking to your classroom I'll come following you.

    Help me take the steps to compute a cdf,
    Calculate a pmf, to derive an mgf,
    and take limits from the left, just learning terms
    won't help my understanding.
    How hard can it be to integrate a density,
    or to calculate a mean, or infer what is not seen,
    I promise to learn Calculus.

    Hey Probability Man, pick a card for me,
    I don't study and I never really learned how to.
    Hey Probability Man, spin that wheel for me,
    As you're walking to your classroom I'll come following you.

    My memory is gone when the process is Poisson,
    Or even Gaussian; my transforming is undone
    With the wrong Jacobian, my mind's made up,
    I need to understand you.
    Teach me all you know, teach me now I cannot wait
    to learn how to correlate, or when one should integrate,
    I want to learn everthing.

    Hey Probability Man, flip a coin for me,
    I don't study and I never really learned how to.
    Hey Probability Man, roll those dice for me,
    As you're walking to your classroom I'll come following you.

  • Lyrics copyright by Bent Natvig and Morris DeGroot
    May sing to the tune of "Strangers in the Night" (Kaenpfert, Singleton, and Snyder)

    Bayesians in the night
    With exchangeable glances
    Assessing in the night
    The prior chances
    We'd be sharing risk
    Before the night was through.

    Something in your prior
    Was so inviting
    Something in your data
    Was so exciting
    Something in my model
    Told me I must have you.

    Bayesians in the night
    Two statisticians
    We were Bayesians in the night
    Then came the moment when we
    walked down to the sea
    Under a fault tree
    Our likelihoods were close together
    And Sir Ronald lost his final feather

    Ever since that night
    We've been adherents
    Leaders of the fight
    To have coherence
    It turned out all right
    For Bayesians in the night.

  • Lyrics copyright by Dennis Pearl and Peter Sprangers
    may sing to the tune of "I Will Follow You" (Ricky Nelson)

    Means will follow you
    Follow you as de Moivre would show
    There isn't a skewness too steep
    An "n" so high it can't keep it away

    Means must follow you
    And since the central limit shows
    That near you I always must be
    And nothing can keep you from me
    You are my density

    If n big, if n big, if n big
    Then Normal you will follow, will follow, will follow
    You'll always be symmetric, symmetric, symmetric
    With smaller deviation, deviation, deviation

    Means will follow you
    Follow you as de Moivre would show
    There isn't a skewness too steep
    An "n" so high it can't keep it away
    Keep it away, away from your curve

    If n big, if n big, if n big
    Then Normal you will follow, will follow, will follow
    You'll always be symmetric, symmetric, symmetric
    With smaller deviation, deviation, deviation

    Means will follow you
    Follow you as de Moivre would show
    There isn't a skewness too steep
    An "n" so high it can't keep it away
    Keep it away, away from your curve

    And Normal then will follow

  • Lyric copyright by Dennis Pearl
    may sing to tune of "Strawberry Fields" (John Lennon, Paul McCartney)

    Let me take you down, 'cause I'm going to the sigma-fields
    Lebesgue things are real, and nothing to get hung about
    Sigma Fields forever

    Living is easy with sets closed, and understanding all you see
    Probabilities map to zero-one and it all works out, that's what matters most to me
    Let me take you down, 'cause I'm going to the sigma-fields
    When things are Borel, there's nothing to get hung about
    Sigma Fields forever

    Sets of sets are events, I mean it must be probability
    That is you know it can't go negative or over one, that is I think it's not too bad
    Let me take you down, 'cause I'm going to the sigma-fields
    When things are Borel, there's nothing to get hung about
    Sigma Fields forever

    Always, no sometimes, probability, but you know I know a gambler's scheme
    I think I know the mean, but the measure is all wrong, that is I think I disagree
    Let me take you down, 'cause I'm going to the sigma-fields
    Lebesgue things are real, and nothing to get hung about
    Sigma Fields forever
    Sigma Fields forever
    Sigma Fields forever

  • Lyric by Mark Glickman
    may sing to the tune of "Venus" (The Shocking Blue)

    I had some extra information,
    don't know where it should go.
    A method to express this knowledge
    is what I don't know!

    I've got it, yeah, baby, I've got it!
    Well, I'm the thesis, I'm the prior that you require!
    Well, I'm the thesis, I'm the prior that you require!

    I had myself a complex model
    I didn't know how to constrain.
    I tried to estimate the unknowns.
    My attempts were in vain!

    I've got it, yeah, baby, I've got it!
    Well, I'm the thesis, I'm the prior that you require!
    Well, I'm the thesis, I'm the prior that you require!

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