Estimation

  • by Cynthia Rudin (see performance video)

     

    I was born to be a traitor, no one knows my name.
    They call me the multi-armed bandit, and alone I play my game.

    Now I, keep score of everyone, no one escapes my eyes,
    I keep count, of rewards, that I collect as time goes by, and I

    Explore, exploit anyone, without thinking too hard,
    Never, keeping anyone, always looking around and around
    No regrets, no regrets

    I was born to be a traitor, no one knows my name.
    They call me the multi-armed bandit, and alone I play my game.
    Now I'm searching, near and far, all my arms been tried,
    no context, there to use, uncertainty drove this ride. I'm gonna

    Explore, exploit all of them, never thinking too hard,
    fighting to find the best of them, always looking around and around
    No regrets, no regrets

    Now I know I am a traitor, no one knows my name.
    They call me the multi-armed bandit, and I always win my game.
    To get rewards, is my business, and I know I can prove, I can
    help you, decide without the AB testing you might do, I can

    Explore, exploit anyone, without thinking too hard,
    Never, keeping anyone, always looking around and around
    No regrets, no regrets

    I want to know, if it is possible to live a life with no regrets.
     

  • lyrics and music by Cynthia Rudin

    I was born to be a traitor, no one knows my name.
    They call me the multi-armed bandit, and alone I play my game.

    Now I, keep score of everyone, no one escapes my eyes,
    I keep count, of rewards, that I collect as time goes by, and I

    Explore, exploit anyone, without thinking too hard,
    Never, keeping anyone, always looking around and around
    No regrets, no regrets

    I was born to be a traitor, no one knows my name.
    They call me the multi-armed bandit, and alone I play my game.
    Now I'm searching, near and far, all my arms been tried,
    no context, there to use, uncertainty drove this ride. I'm gonna

    Explore, exploit all of them, never thinking too hard,
    fighting to find the best of them, always looking around and around
    No regrets, no regrets

    Now I know I am a traitor, no one knows my name.
    They call me the multi-armed bandit, and I always win my game.
    To get rewards, is my business, and I know I can prove, I can
    help you, decide without the AB testing you might do, I can

    Explore, exploit anyone, without thinking too hard,
    Never, keeping anyone, always looking around and around
    No regrets, no regrets

    I want to know, if it is possible to live a life with no regrets.

  • lyrics and music by Cynthia Rudin

    As the evening rolls by,
    The sun has past set,
    my code has a bug,
    and I ain’t found it yet.

    I tried all kinds of trials,
    ablated large scripts
    depleted my memory
    searched stackexchange for Tips.

    In training it predicts easy
    like a cheating gambler
    but in test, it's a random guess.

    On the midnight oil,
    the fire's lit
    despite these flames
    it still overfit.

    I know all the secrets
    you know that I do
    I randomized, regularized
    reduced dimension to two.

    Reset the seed
    and reshuffle them all
    increase parameters
    and prepare again to fall

    In training it predicts easy, like the sun in the desert
    but in test, it's that random guess
    the machine and I, we play this dreadful game
    and overfitting has become my name.

  • music and lyric by Cynthia Rudin

    When I look around, I'd find you there in space, and I see that you are like me...
    and the future is ours, the oyster, our world, where things far-away just don't matter.

    ‘Cause I can count on you, ‘cause you know me too well, you just sit right there by my side.
    In a metric space, we can find our place...
    for each other we truly decide.

    My nearest neighbors
    My k nearest neighbors

    If I were missing a part, you would extend your heart, so that I could be whole once again.
    And when clustering, I'd do anything so that I would be with you, my friends.

    My nearest neighbors
    my k nearest neighbors

    And all the k of you, with k more than two, together we work as a team.
    Case-based reasoning, can do anything, perform as you'd fathom to dream.

    My nearest neighbors
    my k nearest neighbors

  • lyric copyright by Lawrence M Lesser and Dennis K Pearl
    (based on Donald Byrd's idea to use the mid-20th century folk song in Mathematics Education)

    100 bottles of beer on the wall,
    plus or minus one beer:
    If one of those bottles should happen to fall,
    the M.O.E. won't cover them all!

    99 bottles of beer on the wall,
    plus or minus one beer:
    If one of those bottles should happen to fall,
    the M.O.E. won't cover them all!

    etc...

  • A Parody of “The Road Not Taken” by Robert Frost
    by Kelly Bodwin

    Two schools of thought diverged in Stat,
    And sorry I could not trust in both
    And get one estimate. Long I sat,
    And thought about my theta-hat;
    Its variance and its long-run growth.

    To set a prior - that is fair,
    Not “subjective”, as some claim.
    Good statisticians are aware:
    Assumptions are found everywhere,
    And that is not a cause for shame.

    And both philosophies will say,
    It’s understanding most folks lack.
    So, p-values, go away!
    I’ll take Bayes Factors any day.
    Let’s cut our audience some slack.

    I shall be telling this with a sigh,
    Somewhere thetas and thetas hence.
    Two choices to condition by -
    I fixed the data, chose a pi,
    And that has made all the inference.

  • Did you hear about the Bayesian that built a model to tell her when she needs to go to the dentist? It said she didn't need to go for 6 months, but that's probably because she just had a week prior.

    Evan Wimpey

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