Estimation Principles

  • July 28, 2009 Activity webinar presented by Jo Hardin, Pomona College, and hosted by Leigh Slauson, Otterbein College. Based on an activity by John Spurrier, this webinar uses a baseball example to introduce students to Bayesian estimation. Students use prior information to determine prior distributions which lead to different estimators of the probability of a hit in baseball. The webinar also compares different Bayesian estimators and different frequentist estimators using bias, variability, and mean squared error. The effect that sample size and dispersion of the prior distribution have on the estimator is then illustrated by the activity.
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  • Let me throw a mathematical dilemma at you - there`s 500 left. Well how come the odds of you winning are a million to one? is a quote by British TV personality Simon Cowell (1959 - ). Cowell said this to a contestant on the British TV talent competition "Pop Idol" on October 5, 2001.
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  • Statistics has been the handmaid of science, and has poured a flood of light upon the dark questions of famine and pestilence, ignorance and crime, disease and death. This is a quote from James A. Garfield, the 20th President of the United States. The quote came in a speech delivered in the House of Representatives on December 16, 1867 in which Garfield (then a congressman) was arguing for the value of a broad and scientifically sound census. The quote is found on page 216 of the 1881 book "The Life and Work of James A. Garfield," by John Clark Ridpath.
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  • For every fact there is an infinity of hypotheses. is a quote by American writer Robert M. Pirsig (1928 - ). The quote is found on page 171 of his 1974 book "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values".
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  • Hypotheses like professors, when they are seen not to work any longer in the laboratory, should disappear. This is a quote by British chemist and chemistry education pioneer Henry Edward Armstrong (1848 - 1937). The quote is found in Sir Harold Hartley's chapter on Armstrong in his 1971 book "Studies in the History of Chemistry".
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  • I love pictures. Formulas and symbols - I don't especially like them. is a quote by American probabilist and Bayesian statistical theoretician David Blackwell (1919 - 2010). The quote may be found in the the book "Mathematical People: Profiles and Interviews" edited by D.J. Albers & G.L. Alexanderson (Birkhauser, 1985).
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  • A sketch by Anastasia Mandel reinterpreting "The Dice Players" by Georges de La Tour (c. 1650-1651) with the statistical caption "The first practical probability studies." This is part of a collection of sketches by Anastasia Mandel and their accompanying statistical captions written by Stan Lipovetsky and Igor Mandel that took first place in the cartoon & art category of the 2009 A-Mu-sing contest sponsored by CAUSE. The collection and their accompanying statistical captions discussed in the paper "How art helps to understand statistics" (Model Assisted Statistics and Applications, 2009) by Stan Lipovetsky and Igor Mandel in volume 4 pages 313-324. Free to use in classrooms and on course websites.
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  • A sketch by Anastasia Mandel reinterpreting "The Cardsharps" by Michelangelo Merisi da Caravaggio (c. 1594-1596) with the statistical caption "A naive Bayes estimation." This is part of a collection of sketches by Anastasia Mandel and their accompanying statistical captions written by Stan Lipovetsky and Igor Mandel that took first place in the cartoon & art category of the 2009 A-Mu-sing contest sponsored by CAUSE. The collection and their accompanying statistical captions discussed in the paper "How art helps to understand statistics" (Model Assisted Statistics and Applications, 2009) by Stan Lipovetsky and Igor Mandel in volume 4 pages 313-324. Free to use in classrooms and on course websites.
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  • A sketch by Anastasia Mandel reinterpreting "Road Before the Mountains, Sainte-Victoire" by Paul Cezanne (c. 1898-1902) with the statistical caption "Almost normal distribution." This is part of a collection of sketches by Anastasia Mandel and their accompanying statistical captions written by Stan Lipovetsky and Igor Mandel that took first place in the cartoon & art category of the 2009 A-Mu-sing contest sponsored by CAUSE. The collection and their accompanying statistical captions discussed in the paper "How art helps to understand statistics" (Model Assisted Statistics and Applications, 2009) by Stan Lipovetsky and Igor Mandel in volume 4 pages 313-324. Free to use in classrooms and on course websites.
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  • A sketch by Anastasia Mandel reinterpreting "Mont Sainte-Victoire" by Paul Cezanne (1898) with the statistical caption "A skewed distribution, but the same mountain (always look at things from different angles)." This is part of a collection of sketches by Anastasia Mandel and their accompanying statistical captions written by Stan Lipovetsky and Igor Mandel that took first place in the cartoon & art category of the 2009 A-Mu-sing contest sponsored by CAUSE. The collection and their accompanying statistical captions discussed in the paper "How art helps to understand statistics" (Model Assisted Statistics and Applications, 2009) by Stan Lipovetsky and Igor Mandel in volume 4 pages 313-324. Free to use in classrooms and on course websites.
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