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A First Lesson in Bayesian Inference (uses Shiny Apps)

This page supports an in-class exercise that highlights several key Bayesian concepts. The scenario is as follows: a large paper bag contains pieces of candy with wrappings of different color, and we are interested in learning about the unknown proportion of yellow-wrapped pieces of candy. After completing the exercises, we will be familiar with the following concepts and ideas: probability distributions can quantify degree of beliefprior distributionposterior distributionsequential updatingconjugacy, Cromwell’s Rule (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromwell's_rule), the data overwhelm the prior, Bayes factors, Savage-Dickey density ratio, sensitivity analysiscoherence.

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Author Name: 
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
Source Code Available: 
Source Code Not Available
Intended User Role: 
Learner
Teacher
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Cost: 
Free for All

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