A cartoon that can used to help discuss the difference between large and small datasets and the kinds of issues involved in analyzing them and the questions that can be answered with them. The cartoon was used in the April 2020 CAUSE cartoon caption contest and the winning caption was written by Eric Vance from the University of Colorado Boulder. The cartoon was drawn by British cartoonist John Landers (www.landers.co.uk) based on an idea by Dennis Pearl from Penn State University.
A cartoon that can be used in a discussion of prediction – and the difference between the accuracy of a single prediction and quantifying the level of accuracy for a prediction method. The cartoon was used in the May 2019 CAUSE cartoon caption contest and the winning caption was written by Mickey Dunlap from the University of Georgia. The cartoon was drawn by British cartoonist John Landers (www.landers.co.uk) based on an idea by Dennis Pearl from Penn State University. A co-winning caption in the May 2019 contest was “I see you come from a long line of statisticians," written by Douglas VanDerwerkenz from the U.S. Naval Academy. Doug's clever pun can be related to the multiple testing problem by talking about how a fortune teller will get some predictions right if they make a long line of them.
A cartoon suitable for use in teaching about confidence intervals and the quality of estimates made by a model. The cartoon is number 2311 (May, 2020) from the webcomic series at xkcd.com created by Randall Munroe. Free to use in the classroom and on course web sites under a Creative Commons attribution-non-commercial 2.5 license.
A cartoon suitable for use in teaching about Type I and Type II errors as well as providing a comical take on other kinds of errors that can occur with statistical inference. The cartoon is number 2303 (May, 2020) from the webcomic series at xkcd.com created by Randall Munroe. Free to use in the classroom and on course web sites under a Creative Commons attribution-non-commercial 2.5 license.
A cartoon suitable for use in teaching about the variability in estimates (including estimates of the variability of estimates). The cartoon is number 2110 (February, 2019) from the webcomic series at xkcd.com created by Randall Munroe. Free to use in the classroom and on course web sites under a Creative Commons attribution-non-commercial 2.5 license.
Summary: This High School AP activity examines whether students can tell the difference between CokeTM and PepsiTM by taste? During the “tasting part”, data are collected and the class keeps track of how many students can differentiate between Coke and Pepsi. During the “simulation part” of the activity, a simulation is conducted with dice. Finally, students compare their classroom results in the taste test with the simulated results about what would happen when subjects just guess randomly from the three possible choices. The activity is described in F. Bullard, “AP Statistics: Coke Versus Pepsi: An Introductory Activity for Test of Significance: AP Central – The College Board,” 2017 on the AP Central website at https://apcentral.collegeboard.org/courses/ap-statistics/classroom-resources/coke-versus-pepsi-introductory-test-significance
Specifics: The activity is performed in the following steps:
(Resource photo illustration by Barbara Cohen, 2020; this summary compiled by Bibek Aryal)
Summary: This article describes the capture-recapture method of estimating the size of a population of fish in a pond and illustrates it with both a “hands-on” classroom activity using Pepperidge Farm GoldfiishTM crackers and a computer simulation that investigates two different estimators of the population size. The activity was described in R. W. Johnson, “How many fish are in the pond?,”Teaching Statistics, 18 (1) (1996), 2-5
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9639.1996.tb00882.x
Specifics: To illustrate the capture-recapture method in the classroom, two different varieties of Pepperidge Farm GoldfishTM crackers are used. The instructor places all of the Goldfish from a full bag of the original variety in a bowl to correspond to the initial state of the pond (the instructor should have previously counted the true number from the bag, which turned out to be 323 in the paper’s example). Students then captured c = 50 of these fish and replaced them with 50 Goldfish of a flavored variety of different color. After mixing the contents of the bowl, t=6 ‘tagged’ fish - fish of the flavored variety were found in a recaptured sample size of r = 41, giving the estimate cr/t= 341. This used the maximum likelihood (ML method. To examine the behavior of the MLE the capture-recapture ML method is repeated 1000 times using a computer simulation. The distribution of the results will be heavily skewed since the MLE is quite biased (in fact, since there is positive probability that t = 0, the MLE has an infinite expectation). The simulation is then redone using Seber’s biased-corrected estimate = [(c+1)(r+1)/(t+1)] – 1. After the true value of the population size is revealed by the instructor, students see that the average of the 1000 new simulations show that the biased-corrected version is indeed closer to the truth (and also that the new estimate has less variability).
(Resource photo illustration by Barbara Cohen, 2020; this summary compiled by Bibek Aryal)
Summary: Through generating, collecting, displaying, and analyzing data, students are given the opportunity to explore a variety of descriptive statistical techniques and develop an understanding of the distinction between theoretical, subjective, and empirical (or experimental) probabilities. These concepts are developed with activities using Hershey KissesTM and may be extended to introduce the sampling distribution of a sample proportion. The activities are described in M. Richardson and S. Haller. (2002), “What is the Probability of a Kiss? (It's Not What You Think),” Journal of Statistics Education, 10(3), https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10691898.2002.11910683
Specifics: The main activity uses Hershey’s Kisses to explore the concept of probability. Three specific sub-activities are performed such as:
(Resource photo illustration by Barbara Cohen, 2020; this summary compiled by Bibek Aryal)
Summary: A classroom activity using dried split peas exploring the reliability of a basic capture-mark-recapture method of population estimation is described using great whale conservation as a motivating example. The activity was described in C. du Feu, “Having a whale of a time,” Teaching Statistics, 31 (3) (2009), 66-71.
Specifics: The hands-on activity uses dried split peas and involves much larger populations and has two advantages. Firstly, the split-pea populations are too large for any sensible student to contemplate counting the full population. Secondly, unlike SmartiesTM, or M&M’sTM dried split peas will not suffer loss through eating (so there is a fixed population size to be estimated). Beforehand, soak some split peas in colored food dye or simply buy both green peas and yellow peas. Students add exactly 50 of the differently colored peas to each population of unmarked split peas. We now have hundreds, if not thousands, of members in each population of which 50 were ‘captured’ and marked in the first sampling event. The sampling can be done using a teaspoon of about 5mL capacity, which gives samples of about 50 individuals. The number of marked and unmarked split peas in the spoon are counted and a population estimate is made. The peas are replaced, the populations is mixed (stirring or shaking with the lid on) and the next sample is taken. This is repeated as long as required. Once there are sufficient estimates, the sampling can be drawn to a close and discussion of the estimates can take place.
Supplementary materials include expository material on the motivating example and student worksheets.
(Resource photo illustration by Barbara Cohen, 2020; this summary compiled by Bibek Aryal)
A hands-on activity using the capture-recapture method to estimate the number of SmartiesTM candy pieces in a population and to study the variability in individual estimates compared to an estimate based on the mean of many estimates. The activity was described in B. Dudley, "A practical study of the capture/recapture method of estimating population size, Teaching Statistics, 5 (3) (1983), 66-70.
Summary: A hands-on activity to study the variability of the capture/recapture technique for estimating population sizes, demonstrated using a population of Smarties candy as an example.
Specifics: The capture/recapture technique is used to arrive at estimates of the size of population of mobile animals using the formula:
a/d = c/b, where
a = number marked and released into the population,
b = size of the second catch,
c = the number recaptured in the second catch,
d = the size of the population as a whole
The contents of a box of smarties are poured into a saucer and all the sweets of red colour were counted (=a). After that, all the sweets are poured into a paper bag and shaken thoroughly. With an egg cup, without looking at the bag, the second sample (=b) was scooped and the number of red ones recaptured were recorded (=c). This exercise was repeated ten times and the mean was calculated. Finally, the number of Smarties in the model population were counted and compared with the estimates derived from the sampling. Students learn about the variability of individual estimates, which is quite large (remember that the mean of the estimate here is actually infinite since an observation of zero tagged items results in an infite estimate).
(Resource photo illustration by Barbara Cohen, 2020; this summary compiled by Bibek Aryal)