# **CETL Reusable Learning Objects: Probability

This is a collection of cases to demonstrate concepts of inferential statistics. Many materials are flash based, which is specifically interesting for young and beginning learners. This resource provides a simple introduction to probability and to Type I and II errors.
Rating:
Author Name:
Al Leeder, David Justham, Heather Wharrad
Technical Requirements:
Shockwave, Internet Explorer (or web browser)
Content Quality Concerns:
The first Activity states "The chances of being struck by lightning are 1 in 10,000,000." Is that "per day" or "in my lifetime" or "if I live in England" or is it something else? Given how the Sampling module talks about "sampling error" it might be better to place it after the module on Type I error. The Type I errors module is sloppy regarding sample vs population: "Say we want to see if a group of patients, who have been given a new drug, _have recovered_ more quickly than a group of patients who received the standard drug. We can use a statistical test to see if there is a difference." (Emphasis added.) We know what happened in the two samples; we only need to make an inference about the populations. There are only a few concepts covered in the website. It does not specify the target audience, but the content is not adequate for general teaching purpose. It can be used as starting point for more relevant concepts, such as conditional probability. Meanwhile, the concept "activity" is better replaced by "event", which is more consistent with current textbooks and precise. Also there are two identical icons named "activity".
Content Quality Strengths:
Concepts are demonstrated with flash clips, which is very easy and interesting. The use of animation is good.
Ease of Use Concerns:
The organization can be improved. For example, the interconnections between the concepts are not always clear. Is there a particular order in which students should explore the concepts?
Ease of Use Strengths:
Very easy to use by student and instructor. Fun to watch. Stand alone materials.
Potential Effectiveness Concerns:
The animation of the potential road accident that has probability 1 does not jibe with everyday experience, in which a pedestrian might move out of the road when a car is coming. The concern here is related with the content. With only a few concepts demonstrated here it is not efficient to use, at least not enough. In addition, the concepts included are so simple that an instructor might not have a lot of problems explaining them. Usually help is needed in teaching more complicated concepts like Baysian or conditional, or the calculation (permulation, combination, etc) part. But it might fit the lower level students like K-12, in which case the instruction should be more clear.
Potential Effectiveness Strengths:
The topics - probability and Type I and II errors - are important. The assessment function is a good technique to make sure learning goals are achieved. The webpage interface is simple and easy to follow. It does not built on prior concepts and easy to use in a class.
Content Quality Rating:
3
Ease of Use Rating:
4
Potential Effectiveness Rating:
3
Source Code Available:
Source Code Available
Intended User Role:
Learner, Teacher
Material Type:
Resource Type:
Statistical Topic: