Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.

Chapter

  • The core of this chapter is a review of studies that can be construed as efforts to reduce two familiar biases, hindsight and overconfidence.

  • In this chapter, we discuss the possibility of improving people's inferences in everyday life.

  • This chapter explores some psychological elements of the risk-assessment process. Its basic premises are that both the public and the experts are necessary participants in that process, that assessment is inherently subjective, and that understanding judgmental limitations is crucial to effective decision making.

  • "The study of intuitions and errors in judgment under uncertainty is complicated by several factors: discrepancies between acceptance and application of normative rules; effects of content on the application of rules; Socratic hints that create intuitions whole testing them; demand characteristics of within-subject experiments; subjects' interpretations of experimental messages according to standard conversational rules. The positive analysis of a judgmental error in terms of heuristics may be supplemented by a negative analysis, which seeks to explain why the correct rule is not intuitively compelling. A negative analysis of non-regressive prediction is outlined."

  • In this chapter we sketch some extensions of the range of observations that are normally considered in psychological analyses of judgments under uncertainty. Two levels of responses to uncertainty are discussed.

  • In this chapter we begin by describing the special problem of probability in the curriculum and positing what we want students to end up knowing about probability at the end of their school experience. Next we present some important general issues of what curriculum is and where it comes from, and focus on some concerns about how it relates to students. We then consider alternative forms of the probability curriculum, using current projects as examples of each form. Finally, we summarize the theoretical issues as questions to be asked about any curriculum, and recommend ways to use current curriculum efforts to extend our knowledge of how students think about and learn probability.

  • This chapter describes the present situation, as well as the background development and current trends, in statistical education at school level in England and Wales.

  • In the Federal Republic of Germany it is felt quite generally that some stochastics (or statistics) should be taught to high school pupils. Changes in this direction are in progress for the age-range 16-19 years.

  • Although probability theory is now considered by mathematicians as belonging entirely to mathematics and although most subjects use it, its teaching in France is discredited in the eyes of most mathematics teachers. It is dealt with separately, if time is left or if it is required for an examination, and it is the first topic to be omitted in any syllabus reduction. The purpose of this report is an attempt to analyse the causes of this phenomenon and to make some propositions to remedy it, taking into account the work of the INRP group which was in operation from 1973 to 1978.

  • This chapter surveys stochastics teaching at different ages and in different schools in Hungary, including discussion of future plans, and of teaching experiments.

Pages