On the study of statistical intuitions


Book: 
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Authors: 
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A.
Editors: 
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A.
Type: 
Category: 
Pages: 
493-508
Year: 
1982
Publisher: 
Cambridge University Press
Place: 
New York
Abstract: 

"The study of intuitions and errors in judgment under uncertainty is complicated by several factors: discrepancies between acceptance and application of normative rules; effects of content on the application of rules; Socratic hints that create intuitions whole testing them; demand characteristics of within-subject experiments; subjects' interpretations of experimental messages according to standard conversational rules. The positive analysis of a judgmental error in terms of heuristics may be supplemented by a negative analysis, which seeks to explain why the correct rule is not intuitively compelling. A negative analysis of non-regressive prediction is outlined."

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