# Conditional Probability and Probability of Simultaneous Events

This site provides applets, lessons, and objectives for learning about conditional probability. The applet activity introduces multiple-outcomes events and computing probabilities.
Cumulative Rating: (not yet rated)
Date Of Record Creation 2005-06-17 15:06:00 2005-06-17 15:06:00 2005-06-17 15:06:00 Generating and Analyzing Data http://illuminations.nctm.org Centers for Disease Control and Prevention webmaster@shodor.org 2005 4 lessons Shodor Education Foundation, Inc. Utah State University Dead Link Computer with Internet The trial analogy is good for definining and differentiating between Type I and Type II errors; however, the analogy becomes awkward and labored as it continues to be used to define and illustrate the probabilities of these errors. It is probably better to switch to an actual statistical hypothesis test (a familiar one from a homework assignment) to explain and illustrate alpha and beta. The graph window is a little deceiving with respect to the minimum and maximum numbers on the graph. The boxes for the these values are extremely large and can make reading the graph somewhat difficult. This applet also uses a somewhat unusual definition of outliers by marking them at 1.9 times the standard deviation of the residuals. This is somewhat non-standard and may not match what is given in many texts. The presentation of material is well organized and provides easy access from one screen to the next. Pop-up displays provide useful assistance to students who enter incorrect information. The material has a good amount of flexibility in the amount of content students can explore. Students may choose if they want to test for significant correlation coefficient or if there are any outliers present in the data. The last screen dealing with outliers is a bit busy and could potentially be confusing to students. The applet allows the students to move from screen to screen and back again. However, if the student forgets to put in a data point (or just wanted to add an extra one), all previous information may be lost. The applet is well organized, and it is easy to maneuver from one screen to the next. The pop-up displays provide clear messages, and provides assistance and guidance to the student. This applet covers a very large range of material in a relatively short time period. Going from a beginning introduction of regression up through SSE and standard deviation of residuals in one sitting may be overwhelming for many students. Instructors may wish to give students a detailed assignment sheet that breaks the material up into sections and helps them track their learning. Instructors may also use this applet in class where instructors can provide details to the students. The applet coaches students through many important topics in linear regression. The applet promotes students' interaction and helps develop an understanding of linear regression. 5 5 4 1