# General Rules

• ### Webinar: Bayes Goes to Bat: using baseball to introduce Bayesian estimation

July 28, 2009 Activity webinar presented by Jo Hardin, Pomona College, and hosted by Leigh Slauson, Otterbein College. Based on an activity by John Spurrier, this webinar uses a baseball example to introduce students to Bayesian estimation. Students use prior information to determine prior distributions which lead to different estimators of the probability of a hit in baseball. The webinar also compares different Bayesian estimators and different frequentist estimators using bias, variability, and mean squared error. The effect that sample size and dispersion of the prior distribution have on the estimator is then illustrated by the activity.
• ### Quote: Cowell on Odds

Let me throw a mathematical dilemma at you - there`s 500 left. Well how come the odds of you winning are a million to one? is a quote by British TV personality Simon Cowell (1959 - ). Cowell said this to a contestant on the British TV talent competition "Pop Idol" on October 5, 2001.
• ### Quote: Garfield on Statistics

Statistics has been the handmaid of science, and has poured a flood of light upon the dark questions of famine and pestilence, ignorance and crime, disease and death. This is a quote from James A. Garfield, the 20th President of the United States. The quote came in a speech delivered in the House of Representatives on December 16, 1867 in which Garfield (then a congressman) was arguing for the value of a broad and scientifically sound census. The quote is found on page 216 of the 1881 book "The Life and Work of James A. Garfield," by John Clark Ridpath.
• ### Quote: Pirsig on Hypotheses

For every fact there is an infinity of hypotheses. is a quote by American writer Robert M. Pirsig (1928 - ). The quote is found on page 171 of his 1974 book "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values".
• ### Quote: Armstrong on Hypotheses

Hypotheses like professors, when they are seen not to work any longer in the laboratory, should disappear. This is a quote by British chemist and chemistry education pioneer Henry Edward Armstrong (1848 - 1937). The quote is found in Sir Harold Hartley's chapter on Armstrong in his 1971 book "Studies in the History of Chemistry".
• ### Quote: Blackwell on Graphical Displays

I love pictures. Formulas and symbols - I don't especially like them. is a quote by American probabilist and Bayesian statistical theoretician David Blackwell (1919 - 2010). The quote may be found in the the book "Mathematical People: Profiles and Interviews" edited by D.J. Albers & G.L. Alexanderson (Birkhauser, 1985).
• ### Cartoon: Modeling biology

A cartoon to teach about the need to think carefully about the assumptions underlying a statistical model (also uses the idea that you can multiply chances for independent events to find the chance that they all occur). Drawn by British cartoonist John Landers based on an idea from Dennis earl. Free to use in the classroom and on course websites.

• ### Quote: Meyer on Probability

We can never achieve absolute truth but we can live hopefully by a system of calculated probabilities. The law of probability gives to natural and human sciences - to human experience as a whole - the unity of life we seek. Quote of American educator Agnes E Meyer (1887 - 1970) appearing in her book "Education for a New Morality" (MacMillan, 1957) p. 21. Also to be found in "Statistically Speaking the dictionary of quotations" compiled by Carl Gaither and Alma Cavazos-Gaither p. 131

• ### Analysis Tools: Online Calculator BrightStat.com

BrightStat is a free online application for statistical analyses. Besides many non-parametric tests, BrightStat offers multiple linear regression, logistic regression, ANOVA and repeated measurements ANOVA as well as Kaplan Meier Survival analysis. BrightStat has an easy to use GUI and supports the creation of mostly used scientifc graphs such as line-, bar-, scatter- and box-plots as well as histograms.

• ### Song: Probability

A song to teach various concepts in probability. Written by Mary Pat Campbell for Mathcamp 2002 at Colorado College. May be sung to the tune of "Take a Chance on Me" by ABBA. Musical accompaniment realization by Joshua Lintz and vocals by Mariana Sandoval from University of Texas at El Paso.