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Conditional Probability

  • Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA’s objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. This PRA Procedures Guide, in the present second edition, is neither a textbook nor an exhaustive sourcebook of PRA methods and techniques. It provides a set of recommended procedures, based on the experience of the authors, that are applicable to different levels and types of PRA that are performed for aerospace applications. 

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  • This presentation was given by Aneta Siemiginowska at the 4th International X-ray Astronomy School (2005), held at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, MA.  

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  • A song for use in helping students to apply Bayes Theorem and examine marginal and conditional proportions in a table to see how, for rare conditions, most positive test results may be false positives.  Lyrics and music by Tom Toce copyright 2015.  This song is part of an NSF-funded library of interactive songs that involved students creating responses to prompts that are then included in the lyrics (see www.causeweb.org/smiles for the interactive version of the song, a short reading covering the topic, and an assessment item).

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  • How can we accurately model the unpredictable world around us? How can we reason precisely about randomness? This course will guide you through the most important and enjoyable ideas in probability to help you cultivate a more quantitative worldview.

    By the end of this course, you’ll master the fundamentals of probability and random variables, and you’ll apply them to a wide array of problems, from games and sports to economics and science.  This course includes 62 interactive quizzes and more than 400 probabilty-based problems with solutions.  Access to this course requires users to sign up for a free account.

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  • Statistics and probability concepts are included in K–12 curriculum standards—particularly the Common Core State Standards—and on state and national exams. STEW provides free peer-reviewed teaching materials in a standard format for K–12 math and science teachers who teach statistics concepts in their classrooms.

    STEW lesson plans identify both the statistical concepts being developed and the age range appropriate for their use. The statistical concepts follow the recommendations of the Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) Report: A Pre-K-12 Curriculum Framework, Common Core State Standards for Mathematics, and NCTM Principles and Standards for School Mathematics. The lessons are organized around the statistical problemsolving process in the GAISE guidelines: formulate a statistical question, design and implement a plan to collect data, analyze the data by measures and graphs, and interpret the data in the context of the original question. Teachers can navigate the STEW lessons by grade level and statistical topic.

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  • A short story that can be used in an out-of-class assignment in association with the study of probability rules, Bayes Theorem and expectations as they relate to games of chance. The story was written by Canadian Mathematician Robert Dawson from Saint Mary's University in Halifax, Nova Scotia and appeared in the Journal of Humanistic Mathematics (volume 7, issue 1, January 2017).
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  • "A Given A" is a song that Lawrence Mark Lesser from The University of Texas of El Paso adapted from his poem "P(A|A)" that was originally published in the January 2017 Journal of Humanistic Mathematics. In addition to providing a vehicle for general discussion (about pitfalls of post hoc analysis, multiple comparisons, or confusing the direction of causation or conditioning), the song may spark particularly lively discussion with the second verse's reference to the Bible Code, popularized by Michael Drosnin's so-named books and discussed in 1994 and 1999 papers in Statistical Science.
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  • "The Law of Statistics" is a poem by Scottish poet Eveline Pye from Glasgow Caledonin University. The poem was originally published in the February 2016 issue of Talking Writing magazine. "The Law of Statistics" is about the case of Sally Clark, who was wrongly convicted in England of killing two of her children based on an error in "expert" testimony regarding the probability of two crib deaths in the same family. The poem might be used in course discussions about conditional probability and Bayes Theorem.
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  • January 26, 2010 webinar presented by Alicia Gram, Smith College, and hosted by Leigh Slauson, Capital University. This webinar describes an activity that uses data collected from an experiment looking at the relationship between two categorical variables: whether a cotton plant was exposed to spider mites; and did the plant contract Wilt disease? The activity uses randomization to explore whether there is a difference between the occurrence of the disease with and without the mites. The webinar includes a discussion of the learning goals of the activity, followed by an implementation of the activity then suggestions for assessment. The implementation first uses a physical simulation, then a simulation using technology. (Extra materials, including Fathom instructions for the simulation, available for download free of charge).

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  • Statistics are to baseball what a flaky crust is to Mom's apple pie. is a quote by American television journalist Harry Reasoner (1923 - 1991). The quote was said in a story on the news magazine show, "60 minutes."
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