Probabilistic judgments made by researchers in psychology were investigated in statistical prediction situations. From these situations, it is possible to test the "representativeness hypothesis" (Tversky and Kahneman, 1971), and the "significance hypothesis" (Oakes, 1986). The predictive judgments concerned both an elementary descriptive statistic and a significance test statistic. In the first case, the predictive judgments were generally coherent, and fit comparatively well to Bayesian standard predictive probabilities. In the second case, they were generally incoherent, and fit poorly to Bayesian standard predictive probabilities. As for the two hypotheses tested, our findings are compatible with the significance hypothesis, but go against the representativeness hypothesis.
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The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education