Informal covariation assessment: Data-based versus theory-based judgments


Book: 
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Authors: 
Jennings, D. L., Amabile, T. M., & Ross, L.
Editors: 
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A.
Type: 
Category: 
Pages: 
211-230
Year: 
1982
Publisher: 
Cambridge University Press
Place: 
New York
Abstract: 

The flow of social experience frequently challenges us to recognize empirical covariations. Sometimes, these covariations are merely another test of our powers of observation and are of no immediate practical concern to us. At other times - for example, when those covariations involve early symptoms of problems and late manifestations, or behavioral strategies employed and outcomes obtained, or relatively overt characteristics of people or situations and relatively covert ones - such detection abilities may help to determine our success in adapting to the demands of everyday social life. More generally, covariation detection will play a large role in our continuing struggle as "intuitive scientists" (see Nisbett & Ross, 1980; Ross, 1977, 1978) to evaluate and update the hypotheses we hold about ourselves, our peers, and our society. An obvious question therefore presents itself: How proficient are we, as laypeople, at assessing the empirical covariations presented by experiential evidence.

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