Inconsistencies in students' reasoning about probability


Authors: 
Konold, C., Pollatsek, A., Well, A., Lohmeier, J., & Lipson, A.
Category: 
Volume: 
24(5)
Pages: 
392-414
Year: 
1993
Publisher: 
Journal for Research in Mathematics Education
Abstract: 

Subjects were asked to select from among four possible sequences the "most likely" to result from flipping a coin five times. Contrary to the results of Kahneman and Tversky(1972), the majority of subjects (72%) correctly answered that the sequences are equally likely to occur. This result suggests, as does performance on similar NAEP items, that most secondary school and college-age students view successive outcomes of a random process as independent.