The ups and downs of the hope function in a fruitless search

In order to investigate the nature of probabilistic reasoning, we devised two experimental problems, each of which involved two hope questions (long- and short-term). We will present the two standard problems along with the Bayesian solution. Then we will discuss a number of features of the solution by applying it to a variety of situations. After describing how our subjects reasoned about the standard problems, we will present a didactic device we developed to make the search problem more conducive to resolution. Finally, we will explore subjects' ability to transfer the lesson learned from the didactic device to the analogous wait problem.