Although few adults would be able to define probability with any precision, and in fact definitions of probability are a matter for dispute among logicians and mathematicians, most adults are able to behave effectively in probabilistic situations involving quantitative proportions of independent elements. Piaget has studied the behavior of children in a probabilistic situation and from their behavior has concluded that young children (say up to age 7) are unable to utilize a concept of probability. The present study is a demonstration that young children are able to behave in terms of the probability concept under appropriate conditions. It is an experiment in which Piaget's technique for assessing the probability concept in young children is compared with a decision-making technique.
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education