This book proposes to set out the recent scientific discovery of an unconscious. Not the unconscious or subconscious explored by psychoanalysis, but one that always and unbeknownst to us involves the cognitive: that is, the world of reason, of judgment, of the choices to be made among different opportunities, of the difference between what we consider probably and what we consider unlikely. The material we deal with in this book derives from wherever we make decisions "under uncertainty." In short, our examples are based on phenomena found almost anywhere, in almost anyone, and just about at any moment. Chapters include: Probability Illusions, Calculating the Unknown, or Bayes' Law; The Fallacy of Near Certainty, and The Principle of Identity and the Psychology of Typicality.
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education