The base rate fallacy in attribution and prediction


Book: 
New Directions in Attribution Research
Authors: 
Borgida, E., & Brekke, N.
Type: 
Category: 
Volume: 
3
Pages: 
62-95
Year: 
1981
Publisher: 
Lawrence Erlbaum Associates
Place: 
Hillsdale, NJ
Abstract: 

This chapter focuses on the intuitive scientist's ability to use base rate or distributional information in two of these inferential tasks: causal analysis and prediction. It will be argued that essentially the same characteristics of human inference are implicated in these tasks.