Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability


Book: 
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Authors: 
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D.
Editors: 
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A.
Type: 
Category: 
Pages: 
163-178
Year: 
1982
Publisher: 
Cambridge University Press
Place: 
New York
Abstract: 

We propose that when faced with the difficult task of judging probability or frequency, people employ a limited number of heuristics which reduce these judgments to simpler ones. Elsewhere we have analyzed in detail one such heuristic - representativeness. By this heuristic, an event is judged probable to the extent that it represents the essential features of its parent population or generating process...

The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education

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