Modeling the Development of World Records in Track and Field

Marie Griffith

Assuming that there is a limit in human performance and that there will eventually be a threshold in world records for every track and field event, analytical techniques were used to develop a model of world records over time. The researchers examined various statistical techniques and identified the Gompertz Curve as the model of best fit for predicting the human threshold limit. This presentation demonstrates how the model performs on data for the men’s and women’s 100, 200, and 400 meters, long jump and shot put. The researchers also completed sensitivity analysis on the performance of the model.