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...rkets] and other such markets to predict the outcomes of elections, sports events, Oscar winners etc. independent events, the probability that the democrats take both is ...

...rkets] and other such markets to predict the outcomes of elections, sports events, Oscar winners etc. See for example [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chan independent events, the probability that the Democrats take both is ...

...ok is especially timely reading for those among us who wonder how long the current bull market will continue. ...ines in the values of stocks. In fact, in an interview that appears in the current issue of "In The Vanguard", a publication sent to all shareholders of Vangu ...

...cience of Statistics. It is a rule, that the most casual and extraordinary events -- if the basis of population is broad enough -- become matter of fixed cal This is not current news, but since Supreme Court appointments are in the news we felt that the ...

...s behind the use of numbers in contemporary media events. For example, the current episode - at the time of writing - considers differences in the accuracy of 2. The current study was done in England and of the 740 mothers-to-be, 301 (approximately ...

...t Bruce Beckwih at a conference in 1969 and the definition, which is still current, along with many others,was formulated at the conference by Beckwith and ot unlikely. So it's the same with these deaths. You have to say two unlikely events have happened and together it's very, ...

...when there are three safer drugs on the market for reducing cardiovascular events." ...E or vitamin C supplementation decreases the risk of major cardiovascular events among men.” This “Physicians' Health Study II was a randomized, double ...

events it refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by ...public, experts need to specify the reference class, that is, the class of events to which a ...

...or 1/7,776 - one chance in 7,776. The much longer sequences of fortuitous events necessary for a new species or a ...rgument, however, is deeply flawed. Leaving aside the issue of independent events, I note that there are always a fantastically huge number of evolutionary p ...

...tive draws is <math>1/5245786^2</math>. Because the sets involve disjoint events, the probability that SOME set will occur in the next two consecutive draws We assume (!) that the events <math>A_i</math> are independent and identically distributed with probabili ...

...edia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem Bayes ideas] about the prediction of future events from one or two examples were popular for a while, and have never been fund ...sed as a mathematical probability distribution of the frequency with which events of a particular magnitude happen. ...

.../01/earthquake-probability-maps.html "Geology News - Earth Science Current Events"] refers interested readers to a website created by the U.S. Geological Sur Bob Norman ( Professor emeritus at Dartmouth college) has as current research methods of voting, He provided for us the following comments on th ...

...at] longevity improvements will continue at their current pace [instead of current death rates remaining constant]. In that model, more than half the children ...ed to make this point, but insurance makes sense for covering catastrophic events of whatever probability, that would otherwise bankrupt an individual. It is ...

...nvestors would have obtained large excess returns by trading on these mood events. ...ught to work, just because they made a mistake...People who follow current events by reading the papers and newsmagazines regularly can guess what is likely ...

...a talented statistician declared: ‘It is also true that for extremely rare events, correct uncertainty estimates may lead us to conclude that we know virtual “For emotionally significant events, the size of the probability simply doesn’t matter. What matters is the p ...

...the phenomenon now known as Simpson’s paradox goes back before any of the current Chance News readers were born; the bestowing of the name, according to [htt ...an diet with nuts (83 events), respectively, versus the control group (109 events). No diet-related adverse effects were reported. ...

...n everyday example: "People use imprecise words to describe the chance of events all the time — 'It’s likely to rain,'" ...family death rate (in deaths per 100 students), broken down by students's current grade and whether an exam (midterm or final) is coming up. ...

<blockquote> Events like this send a shiver down the spine, but the math behind strange coincid (B) the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index-All Urban Consumers (Current Series) from July of the first of those 3 academic years to July of the las ...

Current or future statisticians may be interested in the all-volunteer organization ...rule that tells you that for such a case, whatever the expected number of events (based on their probability) may be, the average fluctuation is just about ...

<center>Events with a-million-to-one odds happen 295 times a ...nts called "Value at Risk" (VaR) and asks the question: did it lead to the current financial meltdown? While you should certainly read this article, it would ...