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Understanding uncertainty: Football crazy
David Spiegelhalter and Yin-Lam Ng
Plus Magazine, Issue 52

Plus Magazine is bublished at Cambridge University. On their website they describe their Magazine:

Plus magazine opens a door to the world of maths, with all its beauty and applications, by providing articles from the top mathematicians and science writers on topics as diverse as art, medicine, cosmology and sport. You can read the latest mathematical news on the site every week,

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