Difference between revisions of "Sandbox"

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Flu Shots
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Poetic Chinese Statisticians
  
The Wall Street Journal of September 24, 2009 reports on a study in the current issue of the New England Journal of Medicine dealing with the efficacy of flu shots during the “2007-2008 flu season.”  There were “1952 healthy adults who received either a placebo or one of two [types of] vaccinations,” either a shot or a spray.
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The Wall Street Journal tends to reserve its first page’s middle of the bottom for less weighty and often bizarre news items.  The headline for the Saturday/Sunday edition, September 26-27, 2009 is, “As Communist China Turns Sixty, Her Statisticians Turn to Poetry.”  A featured poem by a Chinese statistician is entitled, “Love the Motherland, Love Statistics.”  The poem reads (in translation),
  
“Of the 813 volunteers who received the flu shot, 28 of them or 3.4%, later developed a confirmed case of influenza.  In the FluMist group; 56 of the 814 volunteers, or 6.9% developed the flu, while 10.8% of the placebo group had confirmed flu cases.”
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In Life
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Some mock me for doing statistics
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Some loathe me and statistics
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Some don’t understand what statistics are
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Why is it that statistics
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Put a calm smile on my face?
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Because of statistics I can solve the deepest mysteries
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Because of statistics I will not be lonely again, playing in the data
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Because of statistics I can rearrange the stars in the skies above
  
Discussion
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On the website of China’s National Bureau of Statistics can be found “I am Proud to be a Brick in the Statistics Building of the Republic.”  The following poem ends the WSJ article:
  
1. Here is the Minitab output for the comparison between the two forms of vaccination:
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The stormy times force me to pay more attention
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To the national GDP and CPI announcements…
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As the motherland becomes richer and more powerful,
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Statistics are emphasized.
  
Test and CI for Two Proportions
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Discussion
 
 
<table width="50%" border="1">
 
  <tr>
 
    <td>Sample</td>
 
    <td>X</td>
 
    <td>N</td>
 
    <td>Sample p</td>
 
  </tr>
 
  <tr>
 
    <td>1</td>
 
    <td>56</td>
 
    <td>814</td>
 
    <td>0.068796</td>
 
  </tr>
 
  <tr>
 
    <td>2</td>
 
    <td>28</td>
 
    <td>813</td>
 
    <td>0.034440</td>
 
  </tr>
 
</table>
 
 
 
 
 
Difference = p (1) - p (2)<br>
 
Estimate for difference:  0.0343557<br>
 
95% CI for difference:  (0.0129208, 0.0557907)<br>
 
Test for difference = 0 (vs not = 0):  Z = 3.14  P-Value = 0.002
 
 
 
Fisher's exact test: P-Value = 0.002
 
 
 
How does this output support the conclusion that the shot works better than the spray?
 
 
 
2. Because the number of volunteers is 1952 and then total number in the control arms is 1627 (814 + 813), the number of volunteers is 325.  Below it’s the Minitab output comparing the controls vs. the placebo:
 
 
 
Test and CI for Two Proportions
 
 
 
<table width="50%" border="1">
 
  <tr>
 
    <td>Sample</td>
 
    <td>X</td>
 
    <td>N</td>
 
    <td>Sample p</td>
 
  </tr>
 
  <tr>
 
    <td>1</td>
 
    <td>35</td>
 
    <td>325</td>
 
    <td>0.107692</td>
 
  </tr>
 
  <tr>
 
    <td>2</td>
 
    <td>84</td>
 
    <td>1627</td>
 
    <td>0.051629</td>
 
  </tr>
 
</table>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Difference = p (1) - p (2)
 
Estimate for difference:  0.0560635
 
95% CI for difference:  (0.0206880, 0.0914391)
 
Test for difference = 0 (vs not = 0):  Z = 3.86  P-Value = 0.000
 
 
 
Fisher's exact test: P-Value = 0.000
 
 
 
How does this support the conclusion that the vaccinations work better than the placebo?
 
 
 
3. According to the article, the makers of the shot, Sanofi Pasteur, “provided funding for the study” and the lead author “reports receiving lecture fees from the company.”  No mention is made of Medimmune Inc., makers of the spray.  How does this modify your conclusions?
 
  
4. Roughly 5% (84 of 1627) of those who received a vaccination still became confirmed flu victimsFind a friendly librarian to determine how this compares with vaccinations for other diseases such as measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox and shingles.
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On October 18, Japan will observe the 37th anniversary of “Statistics Day.”  Its purpose according to http://www.stat.go.jp/English/index/seido/8-i166.htm was to strengthen “the national concern and understanding to the importance of statistics and promoting their cooperation in the surveys held by the central and local governments. According to Andrew Malcolm writing in the New York Times on October 26, 1977 (“Data-Loving Japanese Rejoice on Statistics Day”), “no nation ranks higher in its collective passion for statistics. In Japan, statistics are the subject of holidays, local and national conventions, award ceremonies and nationwide statistical collection and graph-drawing contests.”
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On the 30th anniversary in 2002, the “catchphrase” selected from “among 2,934” submissions was "Statistical Surveys Owe You and You Owe Statistical Data."  The poster used in publicity is shown below.  Speculate on whether in the United States there ever will be statisticians writing patriotic poetry and/or a national statistics day.

Revision as of 19:06, 29 September 2009

Poetic Chinese Statisticians

The Wall Street Journal tends to reserve its first page’s middle of the bottom for less weighty and often bizarre news items. The headline for the Saturday/Sunday edition, September 26-27, 2009 is, “As Communist China Turns Sixty, Her Statisticians Turn to Poetry.” A featured poem by a Chinese statistician is entitled, “Love the Motherland, Love Statistics.” The poem reads (in translation),

In Life Some mock me for doing statistics Some loathe me and statistics Some don’t understand what statistics are Why is it that statistics Put a calm smile on my face? Because of statistics I can solve the deepest mysteries Because of statistics I will not be lonely again, playing in the data Because of statistics I can rearrange the stars in the skies above

On the website of China’s National Bureau of Statistics can be found “I am Proud to be a Brick in the Statistics Building of the Republic.” The following poem ends the WSJ article:

The stormy times force me to pay more attention To the national GDP and CPI announcements… As the motherland becomes richer and more powerful, Statistics are emphasized.

Discussion

On October 18, Japan will observe the 37th anniversary of “Statistics Day.”  Its purpose according to http://www.stat.go.jp/English/index/seido/8-i166.htm was to strengthen “the national concern and understanding to the importance of statistics and promoting their cooperation in the surveys held by the central and local governments.”  According to Andrew Malcolm writing in the New York Times on October 26, 1977 (“Data-Loving Japanese Rejoice on Statistics Day”), “no nation ranks higher in its collective passion for statistics. In Japan, statistics are the subject of holidays, local and national conventions, award ceremonies and nationwide statistical collection and graph-drawing contests.”

On the 30th anniversary in 2002, the “catchphrase” selected from “among 2,934” submissions was "Statistical Surveys Owe You and You Owe Statistical Data." The poster used in publicity is shown below. Speculate on whether in the United States there ever will be statisticians writing patriotic poetry and/or a national statistics day.