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==Autism Statistics Lesson==
==Autism Statistics Lesson==


Autism is a devastating disease.  Recent attempts to pinpoint a cause have been recently in the news in the United States: [http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/health/13vaccine.html?scp=1&sq=donald%20g.%20mcneil%20autism&st=cse New York Times article] by Donald G. McNeil, Jr.] and [http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/opinion/13fri2.html?scp=1&sq=editorial%20vaccines&st=cse a follow-on New York Times editorial].  The focus of these articles is on law suits regarding the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine “or its combination with thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative that was used in most childhood vaccines until 2001,” as a cause of autism.  After “5000 pages of testimony from experts and 939 medical articles,” judges concluded the plaintiffs failed to prove their assertions.  One judge “ruled that the evidence was ‘overwhelmingly contrary’ to their argument.”   
Autism is a devastating disease.  Recent attempts to pinpoint a cause have been recently in the news in the United States: [http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/health/13vaccine.html?scp=1&sq=donald%20g.%20mcneil%20autism&st=cse New York Times article by Donald G. McNeil, Jr. and [http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/opinion/13fri2.html?scp=1&sq=editorial%20vaccines&st=cse a follow-on New York Times editorial].  The focus of these articles is on law suits regarding the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine “or its combination with thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative that was used in most childhood vaccines until 2001,” as a cause of autism.  After “5000 pages of testimony from experts and 939 medical articles,” judges concluded the plaintiffs failed to prove their assertions.  One judge “ruled that the evidence was ‘overwhelmingly contrary’ to their argument.”   


Coincidentally, in England autism was also in the news in February, [http://briandeer.com/mmr/lancet-summary.htm here] and [http://briandeer.com/mmr-lancet.htm here].  In this instance, the story begins back in 1998 [http://download.videohelp.com/vitualis/downloads/Wakefield_%20LancetVolume%20351(9103)February28-1998.pdf The Lancet, February, 1998] and ignores thimerosal but introduces a problem additional to autism due to the MMR vaccine, Crohn’s disease (inflammatory bowel disease).  The Lancet article had an extraordinary impact on the general public in England as the following graph indicates:
Coincidentally, in England autism was also in the news in February, [http://briandeer.com/mmr/lancet-summary.htm here] and [http://briandeer.com/mmr-lancet.htm here].  In this instance, the story begins back in 1998 [http://download.videohelp.com/vitualis/downloads/Wakefield_%20LancetVolume%20351(9103)February28-1998.pdf The Lancet, February, 1998] and ignores thimerosal but introduces a problem additional to autism due to the MMR vaccine, Crohn’s disease (inflammatory bowel disease).  The Lancet article had an extraordinary impact on the general public in England as the following graph indicates:

Revision as of 18:56, 24 February 2009

Autism Statistics Lesson

Autism is a devastating disease. Recent attempts to pinpoint a cause have been recently in the news in the United States: New York Times article by Donald G. McNeil, Jr. and [http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/opinion/13fri2.html?scp=1&sq=editorial%20vaccines&st=cse a follow-on New York Times editorial. The focus of these articles is on law suits regarding the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine “or its combination with thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative that was used in most childhood vaccines until 2001,” as a cause of autism. After “5000 pages of testimony from experts and 939 medical articles,” judges concluded the plaintiffs failed to prove their assertions. One judge “ruled that the evidence was ‘overwhelmingly contrary’ to their argument.”

Coincidentally, in England autism was also in the news in February, here and here. In this instance, the story begins back in 1998 The Lancet, February, 1998 and ignores thimerosal but introduces a problem additional to autism due to the MMR vaccine, Crohn’s disease (inflammatory bowel disease). The Lancet article had an extraordinary impact on the general public in England as the following graph indicates:


MMR inoculation rates fall off sharply after the Lancet article and start to rise in 2004 because of a (London) Sunday Times investigation which revealed serious deficiencies in the Lancet study. These deficiencies often fall under the rubric of “follow the money,” a concept not given enough attention when discussing what constitutes statistical literacy.

The phrase, “follow the money,” is often thought to have originated in the book, All the President’s Men. According to Frank Rich the book never uses that phrase. It is however, from the film of the same name. Obviously, the pharmaceutical industry has a vested financial interest in vaccines and Deirdre Imus is suspicious of any “big pharma” vaccine and any doctor who sides with it. The main author of the Lancet article, Andrew Wakefield, unbeknownst to the twelve other authors of the Lancet study, had been paid “about $780,000 plus expenses, for his role in backing the generic case against MMR.” Further, he had a patent on “a single vaccine against measles—a potential competitor to MMR” which he claimed would cure “both inflammatory bowel disease and autism.” As cited by Glenn Frankel ten of the twelve other authors in 2004 issued a “Retraction of an interpretation” because “no causal link was established between MMR vaccine and autism.” Wakefield has since moved to the U.S. and according to a supporter of Wakefield, “The United States, with its privatized health care system and entrepreneurial spirit is much more fertile ground than Britain for a medical pioneer like Wakefield.” According to Brian Deer official figures showed that 1,348 confirmed cases of measles in England and Wales were reported last year [2008], compared with 56 in 1998. Two children have died of the disease.”

Discussion

1. If the medical profession overwhelmingly believes the MMR vaccine to be safe, why are parents of autistic children actively seeking litigation? That is, what element of emotional guilt might there be?

2. Although there were 13 authors of the Lancet article, there were only twelve children in the study. A multiplicity of authors is a common phenomenon in medical journals. Why is this so?

3. The Lancet article claims that in eight of the twelve children, “the average exposure to first behavioral symptoms was 6.3 days (range 1-14)” after receiving the MMR vaccine. An earlier version of the paper, not unearthed until 2005, puts the average at 14 days with the maximum time as 56 days. Further, it was later revealed that there was “no trace of measles virus [or mumps and rubella viruses] in any of the children.” Subsequent investigation indicated that instead of Crohn’s disease, the children were suffering from a benign condition, severe constipation. Moreover, the children were not randomly referred by general practitioners but were recruited from a lawyer “who had been attempting to raise a speculative lawsuit.” In 2007, Wakefield abandoned a libel claim, and agreed to pay costs, “estimated at about £500,000.” Assuming all of this is factually correct, explain why some parents still view Wakefield as a hero.