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==Forsooth==
==Forsooth==
COLONEL [Buzz] ALDRIN:  Infinity and beyond.  (Laughter.)
THE PRESIDENT:  This is infinity here.  It could be infinity.  We don’t really don’t know.  But it could be.  It has to be something -- but it could be infinity, right?
Okay.  (Applause.) 
<div align=right>in: [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/30/remarks-president-signing-executive-order-national-space-council Remarks by the President signing an Executive Order on the National Space Council] <br>
Office of the White House Press Secretary, 30 June 2017. </div>
Suggested by Mike Olinick


==Quotations==
==Quotations==
Line 20: Line 10:
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div>
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div>


==In progress==
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2017/02/02/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics-how-bad-statistics-are-feeding-fake-news/#1159c15150ca Lies, Damned Lies And Statistics: How Bad Statistics Are Feeding Fake News]<br>
by Kalev Leetaru, ''Forbes'', "Big Data" blog, 2 February 2017
----
----
[http://www.chronicle.com/blogs/letters/statistical-errors-are-often-not-due-to-mathematical-errors/ Statistical errors are often not due to mathematical errors]<br>
by Brian Zaharatos, letter to the editor, ''Chronicle of Higher Education'', 11 July 2017


----
"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/15/insider/charting-literary-greatness-with-jane-austen.html Charting Literary Greatness With Jane Austen]<br>
by Kathleen A. Flynn, ''New York Times'' "Times Insider", 15 July 2017


<blockquote>
<div align=right>-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, ''New York Times'', 10 July 2019</div>
To reduce words to data points is not to diminish the power of choosing the right ones and putting them in the right order; there’s magic in fiction’s ability to explore universal human truths. But a discipline like statistics can offer a new and amusing — even instructive — look at something as intuitive and artistic as a novel, and that’s exciting, too.
</blockquote>


----
==In progress==
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/magazine/placebo-effect-medicine.html What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?]<br>
by Gary Greenberg, ''New York Times Magazine'', 7 November 2018


[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/07/14/jeff-sessions-used-our-research-to-claim-that-sanctuary-cities-have-more-crime-hes-wrong Jeff Sessions used our research to claim that sanctuary cities have more crime. He’s wrong.]<br>
[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/opinion/pretrial-ai.html The Problems With Risk Assessment Tools]<br>
by Loren Collingwood and Benjamin Gonzalez-O'Brien, ''Washington Post'', "Monkey Cage" blog,  14 July 2017
by Chelsea Barabas, Karthik Dinakar and Colin Doyle, ''New York Times'', 17 July 2019


[http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2017/may/10/sally-hernandez/sally-hernandez-says-cities-labeled-sanctuaries-ha/ Sally Hernandez says cities labeled as sanctuaries have less crime, according to FBI statistics]<br>
==Hurricane Maria deaths==
by W. Gardner Selby, ''Politifact'', 10 May 2017
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:


Half-True
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br>
Hernandez
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018
"FBI crime statistics have found that labeled ‘sanctuary’ cities experience lower rates of all crime types, including homicides."


— Sally Hernandez on Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 in an oped commentary co-authored by four other Texas sheriffs
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies
Sally Hernandez says cities labeled as sanctuaries have less crime, according to FBI statistics
Laura noted that
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br>
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018


The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article].  Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.


----
President Trump has asserted that the actual number is
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/20/this-anti-voter-fraud-program-gets-it-wrong-over-99-of-the-time-the-gop-wants-to-take-it-nationwide/?utm_term=.7028deb33941 This anti-voter-fraud program gets it wrong over 99 percent of the time. The GOP wants to take it nationwide.] <br>
[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].
by Christopher Ingraham, ''Washington Post'' "Wonkblog", 20 July 2017
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]


[https://www.dropbox.com/s/fokd83nn4x6wuw9/OnePersonOneVote.pdf?dl=0 One person, one vote: estimating the prevalence of double voting in U.S. presidential elections]
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br>
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015


----
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[http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/07/de_blasio_s_team_consistently_misreads_the_stats_when_broadcasting_victories.html De Blasio wants to dramatically reduce NYC’s rat population. Don’t hold your breath.]<br>
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br>
by Jonathan Auerbach, ''Slate'', 21 July 2017
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br>
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]
----
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018
----
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br>
''Economist'', 1 September 2018


[http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/regrmean.php Regression to the mean]
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned]
 
----
==Diet science==
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]
[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/upshot/are-fats-unhealthy-the-battle-over-dietary-guidelines.html Are fats unhealthy? The battle over dietary guidelines]<br>
by Aaron E. Carroll, “Upshot” blog,  ''New York Time''s, 12 October 2015.
 
Related “Upshot”:  [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/24/upshot/behind-new-dietary-guidelines-better-science.html Behind new dietary guidelines, better science],  February 23, 2015
 
==Chance of gun death==
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/upshot/in-other-countries-youre-as-likely-to-be-killed-by-a-falling-object-as-a-gun.html?rref=upshot&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=The%20Upshot&pgtype=Multimedia


[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]
-----
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]


==Some math doodles==
==Some math doodles==

Latest revision as of 20:58, 17 July 2019


Forsooth

Quotations

“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore, folklore always wins in a rout.”

-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), Academic Duty, Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17

"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."

-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, New York Times, 10 July 2019

In progress

What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?
by Gary Greenberg, New York Times Magazine, 7 November 2018

The Problems With Risk Assessment Tools
by Chelsea Barabas, Karthik Dinakar and Colin Doyle, New York Times, 17 July 2019

Hurricane Maria deaths

Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:

[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]
by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018

The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies

Laura noted that

Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.
by Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, 1 June 2018

The source of the 4645 figure is a NEJM article. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.

President Trump has asserted that the actual number is 6 to 18. The Post article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete. George Washington University study

We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina
by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015

These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.
Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season
Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone


Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed. Popular Science, 10 September 2018


Googling the news
Economist, 1 September 2018

We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned


Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy

[1]


Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.

Some math doodles

<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math>

<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math>

<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math>

<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math>

Accidental insights

My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.

While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash.

BrokenTile.jpg

As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.

Piece Sq. Inches % of Total
1 43.25 31.9%
2 35.25 26.0%
3 23.25 17.2%
4 14.10 10.4%
5 7.10 5.2%
6 4.70 3.5%
7 3.60 2.7%
8 3.03 2.2%
9 0.66 0.5%
10 0.61 0.5%
Montante plot1.png

The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”

Montante plot2.png

My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from Nature News on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions. Bill also provided a link to a vignette from CRAN describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.

Submitted by William Montante