Sandbox: Difference between revisions

From ChanceWiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
 
(239 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:




==False alarm on prostate cancer==
==Forsooth==
[http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/health/advanced-prostate-cancer-false-alarm.html Flawed study of advanced prostate cancer spreads false alarm]<br>


==Cancer prevention==
==Quotations==
[http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/06/upshot/helpless-to-prevent-cancer-actually-a-lot-is-in-your-control.html Helpless to prevent cancer? Actually, quite a bit Is in your control]<br>
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular
By Aooron E. Carroll, TheUpshot blog, ''New York Times'', 5 July 2016
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in
==Explaining==
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,
[http://magazine.amstat.org/blog/2016/07/01/prescorner-jul16/ We Have Some Serious Explaining to Do]
folklore always wins in a rout.”
<br>
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div>
by Rob Santos, AMSTAT News, 1 July 2106


==Conflicting polls==
----
Jeff Witmer sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians list:


:[http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/18/upshot/confused-by-contradictory-polls-take-a-step-back.html?_r=0 Confused by contradictory polls? Take a step back]<br>
"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."
:by Nate Cohn, "Upshot" blog, ''New York Times'', 18 July 2016
 
<div align=right>-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, ''New York Times'', 10 July 2019</div>


==In progress==
==In progress==
http://www.vox.com/2016/8/10/12422476/trump-second-amendment-hillary-stochastic-terrorism-anti-abortion-violence
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/magazine/placebo-effect-medicine.html What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?]<br>
 
by Gary Greenberg, ''New York Times Magazine'', 7 November 2018
http://www.sciencealert.com/a-physicist-has-calculated-the-probability-melania-trump-didn-t-plagiarise-her-speech
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/your-money/the-billion-dollar-lottery-jackpot-engineered-to-drain-your-wallet.html
 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/
 
==Guide to bad statistics==
 
* Use a real number, but change its meaning
* Make the number look big (but not too big)
* Casually imply causation from correlation
* Choose your definitions carefully
* Use total numbers rather than proportions (or whichever way suits your argument)
* Don’t provide any relevant context
* Exaggerate the importance of a possibly illusory change
* Prematurely announce the success of a policy initiative using unofficial selected data
* If all else fails, just make the numbers up


==Statistical reasoning in journalism education==
[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/opinion/pretrial-ai.html The Problems With Risk Assessment Tools]<br>
[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281997603_Chair_support_faculty_entrepreneurship_and_the_teaching_of_statistical_reasoning_to_journalism_undergraduates_in_the_United_States Chair support, faculty entrepreneurship, and the teaching of statistical reasoning to journalism undergraduates in the United States]<br>
by Chelsea Barabas, Karthik Dinakar and Colin Doyle, ''New York Times'', 17 July 2019


==Tests for gerrymandering==
==Hurricane Maria deaths==
[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/opinion/sunday/let-math-save-our-democracy.html Let math save our democracy]<br>
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:
by Sam Wang, ''New York Times'', 5 December 2015


[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/gerrymandering/ How gerrymandered is your Congressional district?]<br>
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br>
by Christopher Ingraham, ''Washington Post'',15 May 2014
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018


appeal to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoperimetric_inequality isoperimetric inequality]: in the plane, a circle maximizes the area of a closed curve with a fixed perimeter.
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies
Laura noted that
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br>
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018


[http://www.economist.com/node/1099030 How to rig an election]<br>
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article].  Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.
''Economist'', 25 April 2002


Subtitled: "In a normal democracy, voters choose their representatives. In America, it is rapidly becoming the other way around."
President Trump has asserted that the actual number is
[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]


"Worst of all is the state's extraordinary 17th District, which is a crab (see chart). Though most of it lies in the western part of the state, two claws stretch out towards the eastern part to grab Democratic cities in order to make the surrounding 18th and 19th districts more reliably Republican."
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br>
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015


"as used to be said of the old Texas 6th (which was a road from Houston to Dallas), that you could kill most of the constituents by driving down the road with the car doors open."
----
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br>
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br>
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]
----
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018
----
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br>
''Economist'', 1 September 2018


==Diet science==
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned]
[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/upshot/are-fats-unhealthy-the-battle-over-dietary-guidelines.html Are fats unhealthy? The battle over dietary guidelines]<br>
----
by Aaron E. Carroll, “Upshot” blog,  ''New York Time''s, 12 October 2015.
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]
 
Related “Upshot”:  [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/24/upshot/behind-new-dietary-guidelines-better-science.html Behind new dietary guidelines, better science],  February 23, 2015
 
==Chance of gun death==
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/upshot/in-other-countries-youre-as-likely-to-be-killed-by-a-falling-object-as-a-gun.html?rref=upshot&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=The%20Upshot&pgtype=Multimedia


[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]
-----
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]


==Some math doodles==
==Some math doodles==
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math>
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math>
<math>P(E)  = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math>


<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math>
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math>


<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math>
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math>

Latest revision as of 20:58, 17 July 2019


Forsooth

Quotations

“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore, folklore always wins in a rout.”

-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), Academic Duty, Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17

"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."

-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, New York Times, 10 July 2019

In progress

What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?
by Gary Greenberg, New York Times Magazine, 7 November 2018

The Problems With Risk Assessment Tools
by Chelsea Barabas, Karthik Dinakar and Colin Doyle, New York Times, 17 July 2019

Hurricane Maria deaths

Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:

[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]
by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018

The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies

Laura noted that

Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.
by Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, 1 June 2018

The source of the 4645 figure is a NEJM article. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.

President Trump has asserted that the actual number is 6 to 18. The Post article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete. George Washington University study

We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina
by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015

These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.
Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season
Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone


Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed. Popular Science, 10 September 2018


Googling the news
Economist, 1 September 2018

We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned


Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy

[1]


Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.

Some math doodles

<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math>

<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math>

<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math>

<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math>

Accidental insights

My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.

While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash.

BrokenTile.jpg

As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.

Piece Sq. Inches % of Total
1 43.25 31.9%
2 35.25 26.0%
3 23.25 17.2%
4 14.10 10.4%
5 7.10 5.2%
6 4.70 3.5%
7 3.60 2.7%
8 3.03 2.2%
9 0.66 0.5%
10 0.61 0.5%
Montante plot1.png

The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”

Montante plot2.png

My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from Nature News on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions. Bill also provided a link to a vignette from CRAN describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.

Submitted by William Montante