https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&feed=atom&action=historyChance News 89 - Revision history2024-03-29T06:01:07ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=21673&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Randomized trials for parachutes */2017-07-18T19:13:59Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Randomized trials for parachutes</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Paul Alper sent this delightful spoof from the BMJ archives:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Paul Alper sent this delightful spoof from the BMJ archives:</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.neonatology.org/pdf/ParachuteUseRPCT.pdf Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials], by G.C. Smith GC and J.P. Pell, ''BMJ'', 20 December 2003</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.neonatology.org/pdf/ParachuteUseRPCT.pdf Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials], <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by G.C. Smith GC and J.P. Pell, ''BMJ'', 20 December 2003</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The discussion section begins as follows:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The discussion section begins as follows:</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=21672&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* More from Nate Silver */2017-07-18T19:12:48Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">More from Nate Silver</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:12, 18 July 2017</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">More </del>from Nate Silver===</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Last words </ins>from Nate Silver===</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>While most news organizations continue to repeat that the race is "too close to call", Nate Silver's probabilities for an Obama win continue to climb as Election Day approaches.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>While most news organizations continue to repeat that the race is "too close to call", Nate Silver's probabilities for an Obama win continue to climb as Election Day approaches.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>His post from Saturday, [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/ Nov. 2: For Romney to win, state polls must be statistically biased], includes the following description for why the race is not a toss-up:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>His post from Saturday, [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/ Nov. 2: For Romney to win, state polls must be statistically biased], includes the following description for why the race is not a toss-up:</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=21671&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* A forthright stance for uncertainty */2017-07-18T19:11:09Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A forthright stance for uncertainty</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:11, 18 July 2017</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/what-too-close-to-call-really-means/ What Too Close to Call Really Means] by Andrew Gelman, New York Times Campaign Stops blog, October 30, 2012.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/what-too-close-to-call-really-means/ What Too Close to Call Really Means] <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Andrew Gelman, <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">''</ins>New York Times<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">'' </ins>Campaign Stops blog, October 30, 2012.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>You'll probably end up reading this after the election, but a blog entry seven days before the U.S. presidential election elaborates on why Andrew Gelman believes that the race is too close to call and what that really means.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>You'll probably end up reading this after the election, but a blog entry seven days before the U.S. presidential election elaborates on why Andrew Gelman believes that the race is too close to call and what that really means.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=16966&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Randomized trials for parachutes */2013-01-23T21:11:59Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Randomized trials for parachutes</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 21:11, 23 January 2013</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.neonatology.org/pdf/ParachuteUseRPCT.pdf Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials], by G.C. Smith GC and J.P. Pell, ''BMJ'', 20 December 2003</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.neonatology.org/pdf/ParachuteUseRPCT.pdf Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials], by G.C. Smith GC and J.P. Pell, ''BMJ'', 20 December 2003</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Here are some quotations:</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The discussion section begins as follows:</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><blockquote></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">'''Evidence based pride and observational prejudice'''<br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">It is a truth universally acknowledged that a medical intervention justified by observational data must be in want of verification through a randomised controlled trial.</ins></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Here are some <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">other choice </ins>quotations:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*"The basis for parachute use is purely observational, and its apparent efficacy could potentially be explained by a 'healthy cohort' effect."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*"The basis for parachute use is purely observational, and its apparent efficacy could potentially be explained by a 'healthy cohort' effect."</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=16965&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Randomized trials for parachutes */2013-01-23T21:07:21Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Randomized trials for parachutes</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 21:07, 23 January 2013</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Here are some quotations:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Here are some quotations:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*"The basis for parachute use is purely observational, and its apparent efficacy could potentially be explained by a '<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">health </del>cohort' effect."</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*"The basis for parachute use is purely observational, and its apparent efficacy could potentially be explained by a '<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">healthy </ins>cohort' effect."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*"The widespread use of the parachute may just be another example of doctors' obsession with disease prevention and their misplaced belief in unproved technology to provide effective protection against occasional adverse events."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*"The widespread use of the parachute may just be another example of doctors' obsession with disease prevention and their misplaced belief in unproved technology to provide effective protection against occasional adverse events."</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=16964&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Randomized trials for parachutes */2013-01-23T21:06:57Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Randomized trials for parachutes</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Randomized trials for parachutes==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Randomized trials for parachutes==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">For comic relief, </del>Paul Alper sent this spoof from the BMJ archives:</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Paul Alper sent this <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">delightful </ins>spoof from the BMJ archives:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.neonatology.org/pdf/ParachuteUseRPCT.pdf Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials], by G.C. Smith GC and J.P. Pell, ''BMJ'', 20 December 2003</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.neonatology.org/pdf/ParachuteUseRPCT.pdf Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials], by G.C. Smith GC and J.P. Pell, ''BMJ'', 20 December 2003</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=16746&oldid=prevBill Peterson at 21:08, 25 November 20122012-11-25T21:08:43Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"To rephrase Winston Churchill: Polls are the worst form of measuring public opinion — except for all of the others."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"To rephrase Winston Churchill: Polls are the worst form of measuring public opinion — except for all of the others."</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=16743&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* The perils of failed predictions */2012-11-25T21:06:44Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">The perils of failed predictions</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 21:06, 25 November 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l279">Line 279:</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A year ago this fall, New York City received dire warnings about the approaching Hurricane Irene, but actually those of us living in Vermont experienced disastrous flooding. This year, the tables were turned. Here in Middlebury, local schools were preemptively cancelled a day in advance of the storm, but we had sunshine the following morning. Meanwhile, as everyone knows, New York City and New Jersey suffered major devastation.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A year ago this fall, New York City received dire warnings about the approaching Hurricane Irene, but actually those of us living in Vermont experienced disastrous flooding. This year, the tables were turned. Here in Middlebury, local schools were preemptively cancelled a day in advance of the storm, but we had sunshine the following morning. Meanwhile, as everyone knows, New York City and New Jersey suffered major devastation.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Given such history, Revkin asks: "...when projections are off, can meteorologists be taken to court for needlessly disrupting some people’s lives and for lulling others into a false sense of safety?" As he notes, this is not a purely hypothetical question, given the recent manslaughter convictions of six Italian scientists and a government official for failing to provide adequate warning of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. Revkin references an earlier <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">NYT </del>article [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/science/04quake.html?_r=0 Trial over earthquake in Italy puts focus on probability and panic] (by Henry Fountain, ''New York Times'', October 3, 2011), which appeared as the trial was getting underway. There we read:</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Given such history, Revkin asks: "...when projections are off, can meteorologists be taken to court for needlessly disrupting some people’s lives and for lulling others into a false sense of safety?" As he notes, this is not a purely hypothetical question, given the recent manslaughter convictions of six Italian scientists and a government official for failing to provide adequate warning of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. Revkin references an earlier article [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/science/04quake.html?_r=0 Trial over earthquake in Italy puts focus on probability and panic] (by Henry Fountain, ''New York Times'', October 3, 2011), which appeared as the trial was getting underway. There we read:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In the months before a magnitude 6.3 quake hit L’Aquila on April 6, 2009, killing more than 300, the area had experienced an earthquake swarm. That probably increased the likelihood of a major earthquake in the near future by a factor of 100 or 1,000, Dr. Jordan [director of the Southern California Earthquake Center] said, but the probability remained very low — perhaps 1 in 1,000.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In the months before a magnitude 6.3 quake hit L’Aquila on April 6, 2009, killing more than 300, the area had experienced an earthquake swarm. That probably increased the likelihood of a major earthquake in the near future by a factor of 100 or 1,000, Dr. Jordan [director of the Southern California Earthquake Center] said, but the probability remained very low — perhaps 1 in 1,000.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=16742&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* The perils of failed predictions */2012-11-25T21:05:50Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">The perils of failed predictions</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In the months before a magnitude 6.3 quake hit L’Aquila on April 6, 2009, killing more than 300, the area had experienced an earthquake swarm. That probably increased the likelihood of a major earthquake in the near future by a factor of 100 or 1,000, Dr. Jordan [director of the Southern California Earthquake Center] said, but the probability remained very low — perhaps 1 in 1,000.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In the months before a magnitude 6.3 quake hit L’Aquila on April 6, 2009, killing more than 300, the area had experienced an earthquake swarm. That probably increased the likelihood of a major earthquake in the near future by a factor of 100 or 1,000, Dr. Jordan [director of the Southern California Earthquake Center] said, but the probability remained very low — perhaps 1 in 1,000.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The scientists convened a meeting where such estimates were discussed. Unfortunately, in the news conference that followed, <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">the government official </del>appeared to downplay the risk to avoid panicking the public. The article continues:</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The scientists convened a meeting where such estimates were discussed. Unfortunately, in the news conference that followed, <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">public officials </ins>appeared to downplay the risk to avoid panicking the public. The article continues:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> “The government ended up looking like it was saying, ‘No, there’s not going to be a big earthquake,’ ” when the scientists had not precluded the possibility, said Dr. Jordan, who was the chairman of a commission established by the Italian government after the quake to look at the forecasting issue.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> “The government ended up looking like it was saying, ‘No, there’s not going to be a big earthquake,’ ” when the scientists had not precluded the possibility, said Dr. Jordan, who was the chairman of a commission established by the Italian government after the quake to look at the forecasting issue.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_89&diff=16741&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* The perils of failed predictions */2012-11-25T21:04:30Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">The perils of failed predictions</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Andrew Revkin, Dot Earth blog, ''New York Times'', 22 October 2012</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Andrew Revkin, Dot Earth blog, ''New York Times'', 22 October 2012</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A year ago this fall, New York City received dire warnings about the approaching Hurricane Irene, but actually those of us living in Vermont experienced disastrous flooding. This year, the tables were turned. <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">In Vermont</del>, local schools were preemptively cancelled a day in advance of the storm, but we had sunshine the following morning. Meanwhile, as everyone knows, New York City and New Jersey <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">had </del>major devastation.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A year ago this fall, New York City received dire warnings about the approaching Hurricane Irene, but actually those of us living in Vermont experienced disastrous flooding. This year, the tables were turned. <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Here in Middlebury</ins>, local schools were preemptively cancelled a day in advance of the storm, but we had sunshine the following morning. Meanwhile, as everyone knows, New York City and New Jersey <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">suffered </ins>major devastation.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Given such history, Revkin asks: "...when projections are off, can meteorologists be taken to court for needlessly disrupting some people’s lives and for lulling others into a false sense of safety?" As he notes, this is not a purely hypothetical question, given the recent manslaughter convictions of six Italian scientists and a government official for failing to provide adequate warning of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. Revkin references an earlier NYT article [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/science/04quake.html?_r=0 Trial over earthquake in Italy puts focus on probability and panic] (by Henry Fountain, ''New York Times'', October 3, 2011), which appeared as the trial was getting underway. There we read:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Given such history, Revkin asks: "...when projections are off, can meteorologists be taken to court for needlessly disrupting some people’s lives and for lulling others into a false sense of safety?" As he notes, this is not a purely hypothetical question, given the recent manslaughter convictions of six Italian scientists and a government official for failing to provide adequate warning of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. Revkin references an earlier NYT article [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/science/04quake.html?_r=0 Trial over earthquake in Italy puts focus on probability and panic] (by Henry Fountain, ''New York Times'', October 3, 2011), which appeared as the trial was getting underway. There we read:</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Peterson