https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&feed=atom&action=historyChance News 85 - Revision history2024-03-19T10:50:29ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=17722&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Quotations */2013-07-05T20:11:27Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Quotations</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:11, 5 July 2013</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l36">Line 36:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 36:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>"Dr Fisher’s casebook: Sporting life"</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>"Dr Fisher’s casebook: Sporting life"</div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“We see an apparently unending upward spiral in remarkable levels of athletic achievement …. I think a major contributor to this remarkable increase in proficiency is population size. …. A simple statistical model that captures this idea posits that human running ability has not changed over the past century. That, in both 1900 and 2000 the distribution of running ability of the human race is well characterized by a normal curve with the same average and the same variability. What has changed is how many people live under that curve. …. [T]wo factors are working together. There is the growth of the total population of the world. There is also the (non-parallel) growth of the population who can participate. …. The best of a billion is likely better than the best of a million.”</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“We see an apparently unending upward spiral in remarkable levels of athletic achievement …. I think a major contributor to this remarkable increase in proficiency is population size. …. A simple statistical model that captures this idea posits that human running ability has not changed over the past century. That, in both 1900 and 2000 the distribution of running ability of the human race is well characterized by a normal curve with the same average and the same variability. What has changed is how many people live under that curve. …. [T]wo factors are working together. There is the growth of the total population of the world. There is also the (non-parallel) growth of the population who can participate. …. The best of a billion is likely better than the best of a million.”</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>Howard Wainer in <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">“Piano </del>virtuosos and the four-minute <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">mile”</del></div></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>Howard Wainer in <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[http://www.significancemagazine.org/details/magazine/1755673/Piano-virtuosos-and-the-fourminute-mile.html Piano </ins>virtuosos and the four-minute <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">mile].</ins></div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=16334&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Can exercise be bad? */2012-07-31T14:19:08Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Can exercise be bad?</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:19, 31 July 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l270">Line 270:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 270:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>By analyzing data from six rigorous exercise studies involving 1,687 people, the group found that about 10 percent actually got worse on at least one of the measures related to heart disease: blood pressure and levels of insulin, HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. About 7 percent got worse on at least two measures. And the researchers say they do not know why.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>By analyzing data from six rigorous exercise studies involving 1,687 people, the group found that about 10 percent actually got worse on at least one of the measures related to heart disease: blood pressure and levels of insulin, HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. About 7 percent got worse on at least two measures. And the researchers say they do not know why.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The story drew comment on Andrew Gelman's blog [http://andrewgelman.com/2012/06/massive-confusion-about-a-study-that-purports-to-show-that-exercise-may-increase-heart-risk/ Massive confusion about a study that purports to show that exercise may increase heart risk] (4 June 2012). Andrew points out that, <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">because </del>individuals vary, we should not be utterly surprised that some people failed to improve or even declined. Furthermore, this is a simple before-and-after observational comparison, and Andrew is unconvinced by assertions that other potential explanations for the decline had been ruled out. See the full post and submitted comments for interesting discussion.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The story drew comment on Andrew Gelman's blog [http://andrewgelman.com/2012/06/massive-confusion-about-a-study-that-purports-to-show-that-exercise-may-increase-heart-risk/ Massive confusion about a study that purports to show that exercise may increase heart risk] (4 June 2012). Andrew points out that, <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">since we know that </ins>individuals vary, we should not be utterly surprised that some people failed to improve or even declined. Furthermore, this is a simple before-and-after observational comparison, and Andrew is unconvinced by assertions that other potential explanations for the decline had been ruled out. See the full post and submitted comments for interesting discussion.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Finally, one ''NYT'' reader posted this comment to the article</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Finally, one ''NYT'' reader posted this comment to the article</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=16125&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Comments */2012-06-28T14:35:57Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Comments</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:35, 28 June 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l117">Line 117:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 117:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>--John D. Rockefeller, address to the students of Brown University, quoted in Ida Tarbell (1904) ''The History of the Standard Oil Company''</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>--John D. Rockefeller, address to the students of Brown University, quoted in Ida Tarbell (1904) ''The History of the Standard Oil Company''</div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>2. See also the post [http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/07/incentive-perversity/ Incentive perversity], Economix blog, ''New York Times'', 7 May 2012. University of Massachusetts economist Nancy Folbre reminds us that the links between rewards and performance are not so clear cut, and that incentives can be distorted when economic rewards grow too extreme. <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">She </del>points out that high-stakes educational testing led schools to cheat on exams, and out-sized contracts for star athletes led to an era tainted by performance-enhancing drugs. She concludes that, "Good incentives are always a good idea. But it’s not as easy to design them as it might seem, because they should discourage a host of economic sins — not just sloth and fear, but also cruelty and greed."</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>2. See also the post [http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/07/incentive-perversity/ Incentive perversity], Economix blog, ''New York Times'', 7 May 2012. University of Massachusetts economist Nancy Folbre reminds us that the links between rewards and performance are not so clear cut, and <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">warns </ins>that incentives can be distorted when economic rewards grow too extreme. <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">As evidence, she </ins>points out that high-stakes educational testing led schools to cheat on exams, and out-sized contracts for star athletes led to an era tainted by performance-enhancing drugs. She concludes that, "Good incentives are always a good idea. But it’s not as easy to design them as it might seem, because they should discourage a host of economic sins — not just sloth and fear, but also cruelty and greed."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==TV and the shortening of life==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==TV and the shortening of life==</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=16124&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Can exercise be bad? */2012-06-28T14:33:15Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Can exercise be bad?</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:33, 28 June 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l270">Line 270:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 270:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>By analyzing data from six rigorous exercise studies involving 1,687 people, the group found that about 10 percent actually got worse on at least one of the measures related to heart disease: blood pressure and levels of insulin, HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. About 7 percent got worse on at least two measures. And the researchers say they do not know why.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>By analyzing data from six rigorous exercise studies involving 1,687 people, the group found that about 10 percent actually got worse on at least one of the measures related to heart disease: blood pressure and levels of insulin, HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. About 7 percent got worse on at least two measures. And the researchers say they do not know why.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The story drew comment on Andrew Gelman's blog [http://andrewgelman.com/2012/06/massive-confusion-about-a-study-that-purports-to-show-that-exercise-may-increase-heart-risk/ Massive confusion about a study that purports to show that exercise may increase heart risk] (4 June 2012). Andrew points out that, because individuals vary, we should not be utterly surprised that some people failed to improve or even declined. Furthermore, this is a simple before-after observational comparison, and Andrew is unconvinced by assertions that other potential explanations for the decline had been ruled out. See the full post and submitted comments for interesting discussion.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The story drew comment on Andrew Gelman's blog [http://andrewgelman.com/2012/06/massive-confusion-about-a-study-that-purports-to-show-that-exercise-may-increase-heart-risk/ Massive confusion about a study that purports to show that exercise may increase heart risk] (4 June 2012). Andrew points out that, because individuals vary, we should not be utterly surprised that some people failed to improve or even declined. Furthermore, this is a simple before<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-and</ins>-after observational comparison, and Andrew is unconvinced by assertions that other potential explanations for the decline had been ruled out. See the full post and submitted comments for interesting discussion.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Finally, one ''NYT'' reader posted this comment to the article</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Finally, one ''NYT'' reader posted this comment to the article</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=16110&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* House cuts American Community Survey */2012-06-25T18:59:12Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">House cuts American Community Survey</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:59, 25 June 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l175">Line 175:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 175:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>See the U.S. Census Bureau Director’s statement (and video) [http://directorsblog.blogs.census.gov/2012/05/11/a-future-without-key-social-and-economic-statistics-for-the-country/ here].</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>See the U.S. Census Bureau Director’s statement (and video) [http://directorsblog.blogs.census.gov/2012/05/11/a-future-without-key-social-and-economic-statistics-for-the-country/ here].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Reaction </del>from the American Statistical Association <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">to the decision </del>can be found [http://community.amstat.org/AMSTAT/Blogs/BlogViewer/?BlogKey=05b8d607-c521-4d51-8228-b6b2f0826073 here].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">A blog post </ins>from the American Statistical Association <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">website </ins>can be found [http://community.amstat.org/AMSTAT/Blogs/BlogViewer/?BlogKey=05b8d607-c521-4d51-8228-b6b2f0826073 here]. <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"> It calls the vote "a blow to smart, efficient government and data-driven decisionmaking."</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=16054&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Forsooth */2012-06-11T20:33:20Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Forsooth</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:33, 11 June 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l48">Line 48:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 48:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"We're spending $70 per person to fill this [the American Community Survey] out. That’s just not cost effective," he continued, "especially since in the end this is not a scientific survey. It’s a random survey."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"We're spending $70 per person to fill this [the American Community Survey] out. That’s just not cost effective," he continued, "especially since in the end this is not a scientific survey. It’s a random survey."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right> --Daniel Webster, first term Republican congressman from Florida</div> </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right> --Daniel Webster, first term Republican congressman from Florida</div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As quoted in [http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/20/sunday-review/the-debate-over-the-american-community-survey.html The beginning of the end of the Census?], by Catherine Rampell, ''New York Times'', 19 May <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">19 </del>2012. Webster sponsored legislation in the House of Representatives that would eliminate the Survey. (More on this story [http://test.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_85#House_cuts_American_Community_Survey below].)</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As quoted in [http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/20/sunday-review/the-debate-over-the-american-community-survey.html The beginning of the end of the Census?], by Catherine Rampell, ''New York Times'', 19 May 2012. Webster sponsored legislation in the House of Representatives that would eliminate the Survey. (More on this story [http://test.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_85#House_cuts_American_Community_Survey below].)</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Steve Simon</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Steve Simon</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=16049&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* PSA, overdiagnosis, and anecdotal evidence */2012-06-11T18:22:44Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">PSA, overdiagnosis, and anecdotal evidence</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:22, 11 June 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l238">Line 238:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 238:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>My theory on statistics is anybody can look at the same stats and come up with their own opinion. Government does it; each political party does it. Whatever you want it to come up to read, you can fine-tune it and make it come up to that.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>My theory on statistics is anybody can look at the same stats and come up with their own opinion. Government does it; each political party does it. Whatever you want it to come up to read, you can fine-tune it and make it come up to that.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Ohio State University Psychology Professor Hal Arkes finds for most people, such anecdotal testimony trumps statistical reasoning, <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">and </del>leads to <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">'</del>gross over-estimation of the benefits of PSA screening." He says:</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Ohio State University Psychology Professor Hal Arkes finds <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">that </ins>for most people, such anecdotal testimony trumps statistical reasoning, <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">which </ins>leads to <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">"</ins>gross over-estimation of the benefits of PSA screening." He says:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Statistics are dry and they're boring and they're hard to understand. They don't have the impact of someone standing in front of you telling their heart-rending story. I think this is common to just about everybody.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Statistics are dry and they're boring and they're hard to understand. They don't have the impact of someone standing in front of you telling their heart-rending story. I think this is common to just about everybody.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=16048&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* PSA, overdiagnosis, and anecdotal evidence */2012-06-11T18:21:43Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">PSA, overdiagnosis, and anecdotal evidence</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:21, 11 June 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l229">Line 229:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 229:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Richard Knox, ''NPR: All Things Considered'', 28 May 2012</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Richard Knox, ''NPR: All Things Considered'', 28 May 2012</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>One of the charts in the preceding post concerns prostate cancer. The US Preventative Services Task Force has recently issued a recommendation against routine PSA screening for prostate cancer; NPR reported that story [http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2012/05/21/153234671/all-routine-psa-tests-for-prostate-cancer-should-end-task-force-says here]. The Task Force recommendation statement and related materials are freely available from the [http://www.annals.org/content/early/2012/05/21/0003-4819-157-2-201207170-00459.full ''Annals of Internal Medicine'']<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">. In that report </del>we read</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>One of the charts in the preceding post concerns prostate cancer. The US Preventative Services Task Force has recently issued a recommendation against routine PSA screening for prostate cancer; NPR reported that story [http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2012/05/21/153234671/all-routine-psa-tests-for-prostate-cancer-should-end-task-force-says here]. The Task Force recommendation statement and related materials are freely available from the [http://www.annals.org/content/early/2012/05/21/0003-4819-157-2-201207170-00459.full ''Annals of Internal Medicine'']<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, where </ins>we read</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>There is convincing evidence that PSA-based screening leads to substantial overdiagnosis of prostate tumors. The amount of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer is of important concern because a man with cancer that would remain asymptomatic for the remainder of his life cannot benefit from screening or treatment. There is a high propensity for physicians and patients to elect to treat most cases of screen-detected cancer, given our current inability to distinguish tumors that will remain indolent from those destined to be lethal. Thus, many men are being subjected to the harms of treatment of prostate cancer that will never become symptomatic. </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>There is convincing evidence that PSA-based screening leads to substantial overdiagnosis of prostate tumors. The amount of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer is of important concern because a man with cancer that would remain asymptomatic for the remainder of his life cannot benefit from screening or treatment. There is a high propensity for physicians and patients to elect to treat most cases of screen-detected cancer, given our current inability to distinguish tumors that will remain indolent from those destined to be lethal. Thus, many men are being subjected to the harms of treatment of prostate cancer that will never become symptomatic. </div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=16047&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* PSA, overdiagnosis, and anecdotal evidence */2012-06-11T18:21:08Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">PSA, overdiagnosis, and anecdotal evidence</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:21, 11 June 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l229">Line 229:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 229:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Richard Knox, ''NPR: All Things Considered'', 28 May 2012</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Richard Knox, ''NPR: All Things Considered'', 28 May 2012</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>One of the charts in the preceding post concerns prostate cancer. The US Preventative Services Task Force issued <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">its </del>recommendation against routine PSA screening for prostate cancer<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">. </del>NPR reported that story [http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2012/05/21/153234671/all-routine-psa-tests-for-prostate-cancer-should-end-task-force-says here]. The Task Force recommendation statement and related materials are freely available from the [http://www.annals.org/content/early/2012/05/21/0003-4819-157-2-201207170-00459.full ''Annals of Internal Medicine'']. In that report we read</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>One of the charts in the preceding post concerns prostate cancer. The US Preventative Services Task Force <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">has recently </ins>issued <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">a </ins>recommendation against routine PSA screening for prostate cancer<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">; </ins>NPR reported that story [http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2012/05/21/153234671/all-routine-psa-tests-for-prostate-cancer-should-end-task-force-says here]. The Task Force recommendation statement and related materials are freely available from the [http://www.annals.org/content/early/2012/05/21/0003-4819-157-2-201207170-00459.full ''Annals of Internal Medicine'']. In that report we read</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>There is convincing evidence that PSA-based screening leads to substantial overdiagnosis of prostate tumors. The amount of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer is of important concern because a man with cancer that would remain asymptomatic for the remainder of his life cannot benefit from screening or treatment. There is a high propensity for physicians and patients to elect to treat most cases of screen-detected cancer, given our current inability to distinguish tumors that will remain indolent from those destined to be lethal. Thus, many men are being subjected to the harms of treatment of prostate cancer that will never become symptomatic. </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>There is convincing evidence that PSA-based screening leads to substantial overdiagnosis of prostate tumors. The amount of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer is of important concern because a man with cancer that would remain asymptomatic for the remainder of his life cannot benefit from screening or treatment. There is a high propensity for physicians and patients to elect to treat most cases of screen-detected cancer, given our current inability to distinguish tumors that will remain indolent from those destined to be lethal. Thus, many men are being subjected to the harms of treatment of prostate cancer that will never become symptomatic. </div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_85&diff=16046&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Can exercise be bad? */2012-06-11T17:38:31Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Can exercise be bad?</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<col class="diff-marker" />
<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 17:38, 11 June 2012</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l270">Line 270:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 270:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>By analyzing data from six rigorous exercise studies involving 1,687 people, the group found that about 10 percent actually got worse on at least one of the measures related to heart disease: blood pressure and levels of insulin, HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. About 7 percent got worse on at least two measures. And the researchers say they do not know why.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>By analyzing data from six rigorous exercise studies involving 1,687 people, the group found that about 10 percent actually got worse on at least one of the measures related to heart disease: blood pressure and levels of insulin, HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. About 7 percent got worse on at least two measures. And the researchers say they do not know why.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The story drew comment on Andrew Gelman's blog [http://andrewgelman.com/2012/06/massive-confusion-about-a-study-that-purports-to-show-that-exercise-may-increase-heart-risk/ Massive confusion about a study that purports to show that exercise may increase heart risk] (4 June 2012). Andrew points out that, because individuals vary, we should not be utterly surprised that some people failed to improve or even declined. Furthermore, this is a simple before-after observational comparison, and <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">he </del>is unconvinced by assertions that other potential explanations for the decline had been ruled out. See the full post and submitted comments for interesting discussion.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The story drew comment on Andrew Gelman's blog [http://andrewgelman.com/2012/06/massive-confusion-about-a-study-that-purports-to-show-that-exercise-may-increase-heart-risk/ Massive confusion about a study that purports to show that exercise may increase heart risk] (4 June 2012). Andrew points out that, because individuals vary, we should not be utterly surprised that some people failed to improve or even declined. Furthermore, this is a simple before-after observational comparison, and <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Andrew </ins>is unconvinced by assertions that other potential explanations for the decline had been ruled out. See the full post and submitted comments for interesting discussion.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Finally, one ''NYT'' reader posted this comment to the article</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Finally, one ''NYT'' reader posted this comment to the article</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Peterson