Chance News 80: Difference between revisions

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==Forsooth==
==Forsooth==


==Item 1==
==Weirdness?==
[http://www.amazon.com/People-Believe-Weird-Things-Pseudoscience/dp/0716733870 <i>Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudo-Science, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Time</i>]<br>
by Michael Shermer, MIF Books, 1997, p. 54<br>
 
Shermer is founding publisher of <i>Skeptic</i> magazine and a <i>Scientific American</i> columnist.  This book contains his list of “Twenty-five Fallacies That Lead Us to Believe Weird Things.”  The fallacies are not new, but are well illustrated by many interesting historic and contemporary stories.<br> 
See Shermer's 13-minute TED Talk[http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shermer_on_believing_strange_things.html], including a demonstration of a $900 “dowser” designed to find marijuana in kids’ lockers.  Shermer states: <blockquote>Science is not a thing, it’s a verb.  It’s a way of thinking about things.  It’s a way of looking for natural explanations for all phenomena.</blockquote>
 
===Question===<br>
Shermer states:
<blockquote>[M]ost people have a very poor understanding of the laws of probability.  ….  The probability that two people in a room of thirty people will have the same birthday is .71.</blockquote>
Ignoring issues such as leap years or twins, and assuming a uniform distribution of real-life birthdays, do you agree with the probability as stated – or could you modify the statement to make it more accurate?<br>
 
Submitted by Margaret Cibes


==Item 2==
==Item 2==

Revision as of 15:51, 26 December 2011

Quotations

Forsooth

Weirdness?

Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudo-Science, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Time
by Michael Shermer, MIF Books, 1997, p. 54

Shermer is founding publisher of Skeptic magazine and a Scientific American columnist. This book contains his list of “Twenty-five Fallacies That Lead Us to Believe Weird Things.” The fallacies are not new, but are well illustrated by many interesting historic and contemporary stories.

See Shermer's 13-minute TED Talk[1], including a demonstration of a $900 “dowser” designed to find marijuana in kids’ lockers. Shermer states:

Science is not a thing, it’s a verb. It’s a way of thinking about things. It’s a way of looking for natural explanations for all phenomena.

===Question===
Shermer states:

[M]ost people have a very poor understanding of the laws of probability. …. The probability that two people in a room of thirty people will have the same birthday is .71.

Ignoring issues such as leap years or twins, and assuming a uniform distribution of real-life birthdays, do you agree with the probability as stated – or could you modify the statement to make it more accurate?

Submitted by Margaret Cibes

Item 2