Chance News 79

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"... risk, essentially, is measurable whereas uncertainty is not measurable."

--Nate Silver, writing in Herman Cain, outlier, FiveThirtyEight blog, New York Times, 27 October 2011

He continues: "In Mr. Cain’s case, I think we are dealing with an instance where there is considerable uncertainty."

Submitted by Paul Alper


Fraud may just be the tip of the iceberg

Fraud Case Seen as a Red Flag for Psychology Research by Benedict Carey, The New York Times, November 2, 2011.

A recently revealed case about fraud may point to a much larger problem.

A well-known psychologist in the Netherlands whose work has been published widely in professional journals falsified data and made up entire experiments, an investigating committee has found. Experts say the case exposes deep flaws in the way science is done in a field, psychology, that has only recently earned a fragile respectability.

Item 2