https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&feed=atom&action=historyChance News 75 - Revision history2024-03-29T06:43:06ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=15818&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* "Datelab" data */2012-04-30T21:13:08Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">"Datelab" data</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The graphic summarizes responses to a survey about the Datelab experience<center></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The graphic summarizes responses to a survey about the Datelab experience<center></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">http</del>:<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">//community.middlebury.edu/~wpeterso/Chance_News/images/CN75_datelab</del>.png <br></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[File</ins>:<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Datelab</ins>.png<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">]] </ins><br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Click [http://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2011/07/26/Magazine/Graphics/DateLab31.jpg here] for full-size image from ''Washington Post''.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Click [http://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2011/07/26/Magazine/Graphics/DateLab31.jpg here] for full-size image from ''Washington Post''.</div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=15816&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* A Wimbledon coincidence */2012-04-30T21:10:11Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A Wimbledon coincidence</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always provoke hyperbole, as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always provoke hyperbole, as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To understand this calculation, one needs to know about the how the pairings are <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">maded</del>. An explanation can be found in a June 20 letter [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/20/wimbledon-odds-tennis/print Game, set, match … and the odds at Wimbledon], responding to the original ''Guardian'' report:</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To understand this calculation, one needs to know about the how the pairings are <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">made</ins>. An explanation can be found in a June 20 letter [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/20/wimbledon-odds-tennis/print Game, set, match … and the odds at Wimbledon], responding to the original ''Guardian'' report:</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>If there were no seeds, the calculation would be simplicity itself: there are 127 players whom Isner could face in the first round, one of whom is Mahut, so the probability is 1 in 127. The presence of seeds complicates the calculation, but only slightly: given that there are 32 seeds, each of whom faces a non-seed in the first round, and that Isner and Mahut are both unseeded, the probability is 64/96 x 1/95, which works out as 1 in 142.5. (The first fraction represents the probability that Isner is drawn in a position where he faces another non-seed; the second is the probability that Mahut is drawn as his opponent.) Thus, although this rematch is an improbable event, the odds against it are by no means astronomical.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>If there were no seeds, the calculation would be simplicity itself: there are 127 players whom Isner could face in the first round, one of whom is Mahut, so the probability is 1 in 127. The presence of seeds complicates the calculation, but only slightly: given that there are 32 seeds, each of whom faces a non-seed in the first round, and that Isner and Mahut are both unseeded, the probability is 64/96 x 1/95, which works out as 1 in 142.5. (The first fraction represents the probability that Isner is drawn in a position where he faces another non-seed; the second is the probability that Mahut is drawn as his opponent.) Thus, although this rematch is an improbable event, the odds against it are by no means astronomical.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=14010&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* "Datelab" data */2011-08-11T14:48:37Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">"Datelab" data</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Then comes the disclaimer: "And just like our matching process, it was unscientific. Results reflect responses from about 35 percent of past participants."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Then comes the disclaimer: "And just like our matching process, it was unscientific. Results reflect responses from about 35 percent of past participants."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Apropos of online dating, here is an intriguing quote <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">about online dating </del>from p. 220 Dan Ariely's book (discussed above):</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Apropos of online dating, here is an intriguing quote from p. 220 Dan Ariely's book (discussed above):</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Talk about market failures. A ratio [5.2 hours per week searching profiles and 6.7 hours per week e-mailing potential partners vs. 1.8 hours per week spent actually meeting any prospective partners] worse than 6:1 speaks for itself. Imagine driving six hours in order to spend one hour at the beach with a friend (or, even worse, with someone you don't really know and are not sure you will like). Given these odds, it seems hard to explain why anyone in their right mind would intentionally spend time on online dating.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Talk about market failures. A ratio [5.2 hours per week searching profiles and 6.7 hours per week e-mailing potential partners vs. 1.8 hours per week spent actually meeting any prospective partners] worse than 6:1 speaks for itself. Imagine driving six hours in order to spend one hour at the beach with a friend (or, even worse, with someone you don't really know and are not sure you will like). Given these odds, it seems hard to explain why anyone in their right mind would intentionally spend time on online dating.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=14009&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* A Wimbledon coincidence */2011-08-11T14:45:21Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A Wimbledon coincidence</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, Isner and Mahut set a record for the longest tennis match in history. Their fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Their first-round </del>match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">the first-round pairing of </ins>Isner and Mahut set a record for the longest tennis match in history. Their fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The </ins>match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always provoke hyperbole, as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always provoke hyperbole, as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=14003&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* A Wimbledon coincidence */2011-08-10T20:38:08Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A Wimbledon coincidence</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>ESPN.com News Services, 18 June 2011</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>ESPN.com News Services, 18 June 2011</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, Isner and <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Majhut </del>set a record for the longest tennis match in history. Their fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. Their first-round match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, Isner and <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Mahut </ins>set a record for the longest tennis match in history. Their fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. Their first-round match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always provoke hyperbole, as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always provoke hyperbole, as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=14002&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* A Wimbledon coincidence */2011-08-10T20:34:49Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A Wimbledon coincidence</span></span></p>
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</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l236">Line 236:</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>ESPN.com News Services, 18 June 2011</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>ESPN.com News Services, 18 June 2011</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, Isner and Majhut set a record for the longest tennis match in history<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, when their </del>fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. Their first-round match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, Isner and Majhut set a record for the longest tennis match in history<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">. Their </ins>fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. Their first-round match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always provoke hyperbole, as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always provoke hyperbole, as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=13998&oldid=prevBill Peterson at 19:44, 10 August 20112011-08-10T19:44:50Z<p></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:44, 10 August 2011</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l1">Line 1:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 1:</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">July 6, 2011 to August 9, 2011</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"I suspect the amygdala did not evolve to store odds ratios and heterogeneity P scores, but when an adverse event has prompted me to review the literature, I come away with a clearer understanding. There’s nothing like a baby free-floating in the abdomen to drive home the lessons from a prospective study of risk factors for uterine rupture. And that clarity of understanding will serve the next at-risk patient I encounter."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"I suspect the amygdala did not evolve to store odds ratios and heterogeneity P scores, but when an adverse event has prompted me to review the literature, I come away with a clearer understanding. There’s nothing like a baby free-floating in the abdomen to drive home the lessons from a prospective study of risk factors for uterine rupture. And that clarity of understanding will serve the next at-risk patient I encounter."</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=13995&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* A Wimbledon coincidence */2011-08-10T19:35:54Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A Wimbledon coincidence</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:35, 10 August 2011</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l245">Line 245:</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Discussion'''<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Discussion'''<br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Do you understand the above calculation? What assumptions are being made?</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Do you understand the above calculation? What assumptions are being made?</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Submitted by Bill Peterson</ins></div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=13994&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* A Wimbledon coincidence */2011-08-10T19:35:36Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A Wimbledon coincidence</span></span></p>
<table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:35, 10 August 2011</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l236">Line 236:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 236:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, Isner and Majhut set a record for the longest tennis match in history, when their fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. Their first-round match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, Isner and Majhut set a record for the longest tennis match in history, when their fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. Their first-round match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">lead to </del>hyperbole as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">provoke </ins>hyperbole<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, </ins>as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To understand this calculation, one needs to know about the how the pairings are maded. An explanation can be found in a June 20 letter [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/20/wimbledon-odds-tennis/print Game, set, match … and the odds at Wimbledon], responding to the original ''Guardian'' report:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To understand this calculation, one needs to know about the how the pairings are maded. An explanation can be found in a June 20 letter [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/20/wimbledon-odds-tennis/print Game, set, match … and the odds at Wimbledon], responding to the original ''Guardian'' report:</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_75&diff=13993&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* A Wimbledon coincidence */2011-08-10T19:35:10Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A Wimbledon coincidence</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:35, 10 August 2011</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l236">Line 236:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 236:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, Isner and Majhut set a record for the longest tennis match in history, when their fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. Their first-round match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At last year's Wimbledon tournament, Isner and Majhut set a record for the longest tennis match in history, when their fifth set went to 138 games before Isner prevailed, 70-68. Their first-round match concluded on its third day, after being twice delayed by nightfall.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always lead to hyperbole <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">in describing the odds, </del>as in this <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">J</del>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As fate would have it, the two were paired again in the first round this year! Such coincidences always lead to hyperbole as in this [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/17/andy-murray-wimbledon-draw quote from the ''Guardian''] on June 17 : "Isaac Newton would struggle to calculate the odds of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut being thrown together in the first round at Wimbledon a year after their historic match on Court 18." Therefore, it was refreshing to see ESPN article calmly state that "[t]he probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To understand this calculation, one needs to know about the how the pairings are maded. An explanation can be found in a June 20 letter [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/20/wimbledon-odds-tennis/print Game, set, match … and the odds at Wimbledon], responding to the original ''Guardian'' report:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To understand this calculation, one needs to know about the how the pairings are maded. An explanation can be found in a June 20 letter [http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/20/wimbledon-odds-tennis/print Game, set, match … and the odds at Wimbledon], responding to the original ''Guardian'' report:</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Peterson