https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&feed=atom&action=historyChance News 68 - Revision history2024-03-19T02:19:17ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=15224&oldid=prevBill Peterson at 17:47, 21 February 20122012-02-21T17:47:41Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=13330&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Crowd estimates */2011-01-28T19:52:50Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Crowd estimates</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:52, 28 January 2011</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Andy Alexander, ''Washington Post'', Ombudsman Blog, November 10, 2010</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Andy Alexander, ''Washington Post'', Ombudsman Blog, November 10, 2010</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Recent months have seen two rallies on the National Mall by media personalities: the &quot;Restoring Honor&quot; rally by Glenn Beck of Fox News, and the &quot;Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear&quot; by Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert of Comedy Central. For any rally, the estimated crowd size is a widely quoted--and disputed--measure of success. In the wake of controversy surrounding Louis Farrakhan's &quot;Million Man March&quot; in 1995, the National Park Service stopped making official estimates.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Recent months have seen two rallies on the National Mall by media personalities: the &quot;Restoring Honor&quot; rally by Glenn Beck of Fox News, and the &quot;Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear&quot; by Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert of Comedy Central. For any <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">such </ins>rally, the estimated crowd size is a widely quoted--and disputed--measure of success. In the wake of controversy surrounding Louis Farrakhan's &quot;Million Man March&quot; in 1995, the National Park Service stopped making official estimates.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Beck claimed that his rally attracted 300,000 to 500,000 attendees. CBS News announced an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20014993-503544.html estimate of 87,000], based on an analysis of aerial photos they had commissioned from AirPhotosLive.com. The same firm provided an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021284-503544.html estimate of 215,000] for the Stewart-Colbert rally. Needless to say, these figures were widely debated in the blogosphere.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Beck claimed that his rally attracted 300,000 to 500,000 attendees. CBS News announced an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20014993-503544.html estimate of 87,000], based on an analysis of aerial photos they had commissioned from AirPhotosLive.com. The same firm provided an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021284-503544.html estimate of 215,000] for the Stewart-Colbert rally. Needless to say, these figures were widely debated in the blogosphere<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, along predictably partisan lines</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Absent the politics, the mathematics for converting an aerial photo to a crowd estimate is straightforward: one simply divides area of interest by an estimate of crowd density (people per unit area). In practice, the total area may need to be subdivided into smaller, relatively homogeneous, subregions. The Ombudsman article here describes how the Post applied this logic to arrive at its estimate of 1 million for the inauguration of President Obama. </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Absent the politics, the mathematics for converting an aerial photo to a crowd estimate is straightforward: one simply divides area of interest by an estimate of crowd density (people per unit area). In practice, the total area may need to be subdivided into smaller, relatively homogeneous, subregions. The Ombudsman article here describes how the Post applied this logic to arrive at its estimate of 1 million for the inauguration of President Obama. </div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=11844&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Crowd estimates */2011-01-15T03:15:36Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Crowd estimates</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 03:15, 15 January 2011</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The satellite picture with accompanying analysis is available [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/01/21/GR2009012100275.html here].</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The satellite picture with accompanying analysis is available [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/01/21/GR2009012100275.html here].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For further commentary on the inaugural (including musings on how to estimate the number of portable toilets required!), see the ''Wall Street Journal'' Numbers Guy story, [http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/fuzzy-inaugural-math-490/ Fuzzy inaugural math].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For further commentary on the inaugural (including musings on how to estimate the number of portable toilets required!), see the ''Wall Street Journal'' Numbers Guy story, [http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/fuzzy-inaugural-math-490/ Fuzzy inaugural math] <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">(8 January 2009)</ins>.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=11798&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Crowd estimates */2011-01-15T03:14:49Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Crowd estimates</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The satellite picture with accompanying analysis is available [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/01/21/GR2009012100275.html here].</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The satellite picture with accompanying analysis is available [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/01/21/GR2009012100275.html here].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For further commentary on the inaugural (including musings on how to estimate the number of portable toilets required!), see the Numbers Guy story <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">on </del>[http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/fuzzy-inaugural-math-490/ Fuzzy inaugural math].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For further commentary on the inaugural (including musings on how to estimate the number of portable toilets required!), see the <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">''Wall Street Journal'' </ins>Numbers Guy story<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, </ins>[http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/fuzzy-inaugural-math-490/ Fuzzy inaugural math].</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=11797&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Crowd estimates */2011-01-15T03:11:58Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Crowd estimates</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 03:11, 15 January 2011</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Beck claimed that his rally attracted 300,000 to 500,000 attendees. CBS News announced an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20014993-503544.html estimate of 87,000], based on an analysis of aerial photos they had commissioned from AirPhotosLive.com. The same firm provided an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021284-503544.html estimate of 215,000] for the Stewart-Colbert rally. Needless to say, these figures were widely debated in the blogosphere.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Beck claimed that his rally attracted 300,000 to 500,000 attendees. CBS News announced an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20014993-503544.html estimate of 87,000], based on an analysis of aerial photos they had commissioned from AirPhotosLive.com. The same firm provided an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021284-503544.html estimate of 215,000] for the Stewart-Colbert rally. Needless to say, these figures were widely debated in the blogosphere.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Absent the politics, the mathematics for converting an aerial photo to a crowd estimate is straightforward: one simply divides <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">occupied </del>area by an estimate of crowd density (people per unit area). In practice, the total area may need to be subdivided into smaller, relatively homogeneous, subregions. The Ombudsman article here describes how the Post applied this logic to arrive at its estimate of 1 million for the inauguration of President Obama. </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Absent the politics, the mathematics for converting an aerial photo to a crowd estimate is straightforward: one simply divides area <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">of interest </ins>by an estimate of crowd density (people per unit area). In practice, the total area may need to be subdivided into smaller, relatively homogeneous, subregions. The Ombudsman article here describes how the Post applied this logic to arrive at its estimate of 1 million for the inauguration of President Obama. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It not only provided the satellite image online, but The Post also gave readers a step-by-step explanation of how the photo was analyzed in order to make an estimate. It noted those who were not included (people along the parade route or in side streets, for instance). Then it explained what experts calculate to be the area occupied by a single person in a crowd that is jam-packed (2.5 square feet), reasonably packed (up to 4.5 square feet) or loosely packed (10 square feet). The giant crowd was divided into zones, and each was assigned a density. Next, The Post noted what percentage of each zone was occupied by people. Finally, all the zones were totaled to produce the estimate.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It not only provided the satellite image online, but The Post also gave readers a step-by-step explanation of how the photo was analyzed in order to make an estimate. It noted those who were not included (people along the parade route or in side streets, for instance). Then it explained what experts calculate to be the area occupied by a single person in a crowd that is jam-packed (2.5 square feet), reasonably packed (up to 4.5 square feet) or loosely packed (10 square feet). The giant crowd was divided into zones, and each was assigned a density. Next, The Post noted what percentage of each zone was occupied by people. Finally, all the zones were totaled to produce the estimate.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=11796&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Crowd estimates */2011-01-15T03:08:47Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Crowd estimates</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Beck claimed that his rally attracted 300,000 to 500,000 attendees. CBS News announced an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20014993-503544.html estimate of 87,000], based on an analysis of aerial photos they had commissioned from AirPhotosLive.com. The same firm provided an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021284-503544.html estimate of 215,000] for the Stewart-Colbert rally. Needless to say, these figures were widely debated in the blogosphere.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Beck claimed that his rally attracted 300,000 to 500,000 attendees. CBS News announced an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20014993-503544.html estimate of 87,000], based on an analysis of aerial photos they had commissioned from AirPhotosLive.com. The same firm provided an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021284-503544.html estimate of 215,000] for the Stewart-Colbert rally. Needless to say, these figures were widely debated in the blogosphere.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Absent the politics, the mathematics for converting an aerial photo to a crowd estimate is <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">relatively simple</del>: one simply divides occupied area by an estimate of crowd density (people per unit area). The Ombudsman article here describes how the Post <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">produced </del>its estimate of 1 million for the inauguration of President Obama. </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Absent the politics, the mathematics for converting an aerial photo to a crowd estimate is <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">straightforward</ins>: one simply divides occupied area by an estimate of crowd density (people per unit area)<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">. In practice, the total area may need to be subdivided into smaller, relatively homogeneous, subregions</ins>. The Ombudsman article here describes how the Post <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">applied this logic to arrive at </ins>its estimate of 1 million for the inauguration of President Obama. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It not only provided the satellite image online, but The Post also gave readers a step-by-step explanation of how the photo was analyzed in order to make an estimate. It noted those who were not included (people along the parade route or in side streets, for instance). Then it explained what experts calculate to be the area occupied by a single person in a crowd that is jam-packed (2.5 square feet), reasonably packed (up to 4.5 square feet) or loosely packed (10 square feet). The giant crowd was divided into zones, and each was assigned a density. Next, The Post noted what percentage of each zone was occupied by people. Finally, all the zones were totaled to produce the estimate.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It not only provided the satellite image online, but The Post also gave readers a step-by-step explanation of how the photo was analyzed in order to make an estimate. It noted those who were not included (people along the parade route or in side streets, for instance). Then it explained what experts calculate to be the area occupied by a single person in a crowd that is jam-packed (2.5 square feet), reasonably packed (up to 4.5 square feet) or loosely packed (10 square feet). The giant crowd was divided into zones, and each was assigned a density. Next, The Post noted what percentage of each zone was occupied by people. Finally, all the zones were totaled to produce the estimate.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=11795&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Quotations */2011-01-11T02:55:09Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Quotations</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote>"If you're a politician, admitting you're wrong is a weakness, but if you're an engineer, you essentially want to be wrong half the time. If you do experiments and you're always right, then you aren't getting enough information out of those experiments. You want your experiment to be like the flip of a coin: You have no idea if it is going to come up heads or tails. You want to not know what the results are going to be." Peter Norvig, as quoted at [http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/thewrongstuff/archive/2010/08/03/error-message-google-research-director-peter-norvig-on-being-wrong.aspx Slate Magazine]. Submitted by Steve Simon.</blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote>"If you're a politician, admitting you're wrong is a weakness, but if you're an engineer, you essentially want to be wrong half the time. If you do experiments and you're always right, then you aren't getting enough information out of those experiments. You want your experiment to be like the flip of a coin: You have no idea if it is going to come up heads or tails. You want to not know what the results are going to be." </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><div align=right> </ins>Peter Norvig, as quoted at [http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/thewrongstuff/archive/2010/08/03/error-message-google-research-director-peter-norvig-on-being-wrong.aspx Slate Magazine].<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></div> </ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Steve Simon.</blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>-----</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>-----</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=11753&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Crowd estimates */2010-11-29T14:59:31Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Crowd estimates</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:59, 29 November 2010</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It not only provided the satellite image online, but The Post also gave readers a step-by-step explanation of how the photo was analyzed in order to make an estimate. It noted those who were not included (people along the parade route or in side streets, for instance). Then it explained what experts calculate to be the area occupied by a single person in a crowd that is jam-packed (2.5 square feet), reasonably packed (up to 4.5 square feet) or loosely packed (10 square feet). The giant crowd was divided into zones, and each was assigned a density. Next, The Post noted what percentage of each zone was occupied by people. Finally, all the zones were totaled to produce the estimate.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It not only provided the satellite image online, but The Post also gave readers a step-by-step explanation of how the photo was analyzed in order to make an estimate. It noted those who were not included (people along the parade route or in side streets, for instance). Then it explained what experts calculate to be the area occupied by a single person in a crowd that is jam-packed (2.5 square feet), reasonably packed (up to 4.5 square feet) or loosely packed (10 square feet). The giant crowd was divided into zones, and each was assigned a density. Next, The Post noted what percentage of each zone was occupied by people. Finally, all the zones were totaled to produce the estimate.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">A </del>satellite picture with accompanying analysis is available [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/01/21/GR2009012100275.html here].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The </ins>satellite picture with accompanying analysis is available [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/01/21/GR2009012100275.html here].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For further commentary on the inaugural (including musings on how to estimate the number of portable toilets required!), see the Numbers Guy story on [http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/fuzzy-inaugural-math-490/ Fuzzy inaugural math].</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For further commentary on the inaugural (including musings on how to estimate the number of portable toilets required!), see the Numbers Guy story on [http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/fuzzy-inaugural-math-490/ Fuzzy inaugural math].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=11533&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Crowd estimates */2010-11-29T14:59:04Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Crowd estimates</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Recent months have seen two rallies on the National Mall by media personalities: the &quot;Restoring Honor&quot; rally by Glenn Beck of Fox News, and the &quot;Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear&quot; by Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert of Comedy Central. For any rally, the estimated crowd size is a widely quoted--and disputed--measure of success. In the wake of controversy surrounding Louis Farrakhan's &quot;Million Man March&quot; in 1995, the National Park Service stopped making official estimates.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Recent months have seen two rallies on the National Mall by media personalities: the &quot;Restoring Honor&quot; rally by Glenn Beck of Fox News, and the &quot;Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear&quot; by Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert of Comedy Central. For any rally, the estimated crowd size is a widely quoted--and disputed--measure of success. In the wake of controversy surrounding Louis Farrakhan's &quot;Million Man March&quot; in 1995, the National Park Service stopped making official estimates.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Beck claimed that his rally attracted 300,000 to 500,000. CBS News announced an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20014993-503544.html estimate of 87,000], based on an analysis of aerial photos they had commissioned from AirPhotosLive.com. The same firm provided an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021284-503544.html estimate of 215,000] for the Stewart-Colbert rally. Needless to say, these figures were widely debated in the blogosphere.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Beck claimed that his rally attracted 300,000 to 500,000 <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">attendees</ins>. CBS News announced an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20014993-503544.html estimate of 87,000], based on an analysis of aerial photos they had commissioned from AirPhotosLive.com. The same firm provided an [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021284-503544.html estimate of 215,000] for the Stewart-Colbert rally. Needless to say, these figures were widely debated in the blogosphere.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Absent the politics, the mathematics for converting an aerial photo to a crowd estimate is relatively simple: one simply divides occupied area by an estimate of crowd density (people per unit area). The Ombudsman article here describes how the Post produced its estimate of 1 million for the inauguration of President Obama. </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Absent the politics, the mathematics for converting an aerial photo to a crowd estimate is relatively simple: one simply divides occupied area by an estimate of crowd density (people per unit area). The Ombudsman article here describes how the Post produced its estimate of 1 million for the inauguration of President Obama. </div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A satellite picture with accompanying analysis is available [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/01/21/GR2009012100275.html here].</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A satellite picture with accompanying analysis is available [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/01/21/GR2009012100275.html here].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For further commentary on the inaugural (including musings on how to estimate the number of portable toilets required!), see the Numbers Guy story on [http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/fuzzy-inaugural-math-490/ Fuzzy <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Inaugural Math</del>]</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For further commentary on the inaugural (including musings on how to estimate the number of portable toilets required!), see the Numbers Guy story on [http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/fuzzy-inaugural-math-490/ Fuzzy <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">inaugural math</ins>]<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">.</ins></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_68&diff=11532&oldid=prevCibes: /* National polling 2010 */2010-11-29T12:32:53Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">National polling 2010</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 12:32, 29 November 2010</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Blumenthal discusses the 2010 pre-election polls:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Blumenthal discusses the 2010 pre-election polls:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote>On average, the final statewide pre-election polls once again provided a largely unbiased measurement of the outcomes of most races, Congressional District polling had a slight Democratic skew, national polls that sampled both landline and cell phones measured national Congressional vote preference more accurately than those that sampled only landline phones and the venerable Gallup Poll took one on the chin. [I]f we factor out the undecided and calculate the Republican percentage of the two-party vote for each survey, most capture the likely final result (53%) within their respective margins of error .... The most prominent exception is the Gallup Poll. The Republican share of the two-party vote predicted by their survey (58%) will likely miss the actual result by five percentage points, falling just outside the expected range of variation (55% to 61%). Gallup's error on the margin will likely be its biggest since it started asking the generic vote question 60 years ago.</blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote>On average, the final statewide pre-election polls once again provided a largely unbiased measurement of the outcomes of most races, Congressional District polling had a slight Democratic skew, national polls that sampled both landline and cell phones measured national Congressional vote preference more accurately than those that sampled only landline phones and the venerable Gallup Poll took one on the chin. <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">...<br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[I]f we factor out the undecided and calculate the Republican percentage of the two-party vote for each survey, most capture the likely final result (53%) within their respective margins of error .... The most prominent exception is the Gallup Poll. The Republican share of the two-party vote predicted by their survey (58%) will likely miss the actual result by five percentage points, falling just outside the expected range of variation (55% to 61%). Gallup's error on the margin will likely be its biggest since it started asking the generic vote question 60 years ago.</blockquote></div></td></tr>
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</table>Cibes