Chance News 61: Difference between revisions

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[http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/11/new-poll-shows-support-for-repeal-of-dont-ask-dont-tell/?hp “New Poll Shows Support for Repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’”]<br>
[http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/11/new-poll-shows-support-for-repeal-of-dont-ask-dont-tell/?hp “New Poll Shows Support for Repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’”]<br>
by Dalia Sussman, <i>The New York Times</i>, February 11, 2010<br>  
by Dalia Sussman, <i>The New York Times</i>, February 11, 2010<br>  
[http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_021110_2pm.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody "Support for Gays in the Military Depends on the Question"]<br>
by Kevin Hechtkopf, CBS News, February 11, 2010<br>


This is a brief article describing how the wording of a recent NYT/CBS News poll affected the results.<br>
These articles describe how the wording of a recent NYT/CBS News poll affected the results.<br>
    
    
When half of the respondents were asked their opinions about permitting “gay men and lesbians” to serve in the military, 70% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it.  Of the other half of respondents who were asked about permitting “homosexuals” to serve, only 59% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it.  The gap was much wider (79% to 43%) for respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.<br>  
When half of the respondents were asked their opinions about permitting “gay men and lesbians” to serve in the military, 70% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it.  Of the other half of respondents who were asked about permitting “homosexuals” to serve, only 59% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it.  The gap was much wider (79% to 43%) for respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.<br>  


One blogger commented, “It’s simple. Prudish Americans are squeamish about any word that includes the root word of ‘sex.’”  Another blogger pointed to the importance of constructing ballot questions carefully.<br>
For more detailed poll results, see the CBS News website [http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_021110_2pm.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody].<br>


Jeff Witmer referred ISOSTAT readers to the complete poll results available at the CBS News website [http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_021110_2pm.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody].<br>
<b>Discussion</b><br>
1. The margin of error for each half sample was said to be  +/- 4 percentage points.  Do you consider the difference between 70% and 59% statistically significant?  If not, why?  If so, at what level?<br> 
2. Can you suggest any reason for the difference between 70% and 59% for the half samples?  For the difference between 79% and 43% for the Democratic half samples?<br>
3. What implication(s) do these results have, if any, for ballot-question writers?<br>


Submitted by Margaret Cibes at the suggestion of Jim Greenwood
Submitted by Margaret Cibes based on a suggestion of Jim Greenwood and an ISOSTAT posting by Jeff Witmer

Revision as of 17:24, 13 February 2010

Quotations

Forsooth

Census errors

Can you trust Census data?
Freakonomics blog, New York Times, 2 February 2010
Justin Wolfers

Bureau obscured personal data—Too well, some say
Numbers Guy blog, Wall Street Journal, 6 February 2010
Carl Bialik

To be continued...

Submitted by Bill Peterson

Height bias or data dredging?

Soccer referees hate the tall guys
Wall Street Journal, 8 Feburary 2010

According to the article, "Niels van Quaquebeke and Steffen R. Giessner, researchers at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, compiled refereeing data from seven seasons of the German Bundesliga and the UEFA Champions League, as well as three World Cups (123,844 fouls in total)" and found:

Height Difference Probability of Foul Against Taller Player
1-5 cm 52.0%
6-10 cm 55.4%
> 10 cm 58.8%

Avg. Height of Perpetrator Avg. Height of Victim
182.4 cm 181.5 cm

Note that the height difference on average is only 0.9 cm!

To be continued... Submitted by Paul Alper

==

“New Poll Shows Support for Repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’”
by Dalia Sussman, The New York Times, February 11, 2010
"Support for Gays in the Military Depends on the Question"
by Kevin Hechtkopf, CBS News, February 11, 2010

These articles describe how the wording of a recent NYT/CBS News poll affected the results.

When half of the respondents were asked their opinions about permitting “gay men and lesbians” to serve in the military, 70% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. Of the other half of respondents who were asked about permitting “homosexuals” to serve, only 59% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. The gap was much wider (79% to 43%) for respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.

For more detailed poll results, see the CBS News website [1].

Discussion
1. The margin of error for each half sample was said to be +/- 4 percentage points. Do you consider the difference between 70% and 59% statistically significant? If not, why? If so, at what level?
2. Can you suggest any reason for the difference between 70% and 59% for the half samples? For the difference between 79% and 43% for the Democratic half samples?
3. What implication(s) do these results have, if any, for ballot-question writers?

Submitted by Margaret Cibes based on a suggestion of Jim Greenwood and an ISOSTAT posting by Jeff Witmer