Difference between revisions of "Chance News 49"

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==Quotations==
 
==Quotations==
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<blockquote>Probability arises from an opposition of contrary chances or causes, by which the mind is not allowed to fix on either side, but is incessantly tost [sic] from one to another, and at one moment is determined to consider an object as existent, and at another moment as the contrary.</blockquote>
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<div align=right>David Hume, 1739-1740<br>
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"A Treatise of Human Nature: Being an Attempt to introduce the experimental Method of Reasoning into Moral Subjects," 1739-1740<br>
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cited by Leon Wieseltier, "Contrary Chances," The New Republic, June 17, 2009</div align=right>
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Submitted by Margaret Cibes<br>
  
 
==Forsooths==
 
==Forsooths==

Revision as of 15:36, 10 June 2009

Quotations

Probability arises from an opposition of contrary chances or causes, by which the mind is not allowed to fix on either side, but is incessantly tost [sic] from one to another, and at one moment is determined to consider an object as existent, and at another moment as the contrary.

David Hume, 1739-1740

"A Treatise of Human Nature: Being an Attempt to introduce the experimental Method of Reasoning into Moral Subjects," 1739-1740

cited by Leon Wieseltier, "Contrary Chances," The New Republic, June 17, 2009

Submitted by Margaret Cibes

Forsooths

Steven J. Dubner of the New York Times writes about Bernice Geiger, a person who "never took vacations" for fear of her embezzlement being discovered by a fill-in employee; she "was arrested in 1961 for embezzling more than $2 million over the course of many years." Eventually, "after prison Geiger went to work for a banking oversight agency to help stop embezzlement."

Geiger's "biggest contribution: looking for employees who failed to take vacation. This simple metric turned out to have strong predictive power in stopping embezzlement."


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