# Chance News 48

## Forsooths

In other words, the population of a city is [according to Zipf's law], to a good approximation, inversely proportional to its rank [within its country]. Why this should be true, no one knows.

Steven Strogatz.
Guest Column
The New York Times
May 29 2009

Submitted by Paul Albert

## Winning system for craps?

"Accused Cheater's Trial Includes Lesson In Craps"[1]
by Karen Florin, The Day, May 20, 2009

A Tennessee man has been charged with cheating at the craps table of the Foxwoods Casino in Ledyard, CT. During the trial he claimed that he was a "professional gambler who had a winning system that did not involve bribing dealers to pay him for late or illegal bets. (Closing arguments were scheduled for May 21, 2009.)

Jurors watched him provide an in-court demonstration of why his \$3,000 or \$5,000 bets are successful:

The makeshift craps table was “hot” for a while and [the defendant], who has spent the last eight months in prison, appeared happy to be reunited with the dice. He cradled them in his hand and shook them as [his] defense attorney ... walked him through an explanation of his strategy, which involves combinations of numbers that “go with” other numbers. If the shooter rolls a four, for example, Taylor recommends betting on 4, 6, 9, 10, 2, 3 or 11 to come up next.

The defendant described his success:

The strategy works if you manage your money right and cash out when you're winning,” he said. He said his best run occurred in 2002, when he won \$73,000 at Foxwoods. Other times, he won big and then lost big, he said.

A blogger commented [2]:

With 2 dice, odds of rolling 2 of a particular kind are 1 in 36, or 2.8%. Odds of rolling 2 of any kind are 1 in 6, or 16.7%. With 4 rolls, odds are 50-50. All rolls are independent, that is, for any particular roll, odds are 1 in 6.</endblockquote>

Submitted by Margaret Cibes

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