Chance News 44: Difference between revisions

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Submitted by Laurie Snell
Submitted by Laurie Snell


==Two media frenzies not supported by the data==


.
[http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/health/27coca.html The Epidemic That Wasn’t], Susan Okie, The New York Times, January 26, 2009.
 
[http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/health/27well.html The Myth of Rampant Teenage Promiscuity], Tara Parker-Pope, The New York Times, January 26, 2009.
 
Two articles in the New York Times use statistics to debunk media reports of pending social disasters.
 
<blockquote>"When the use of crack cocaine became a nationwide epidemic in the 1980s and ’90s, there were widespread fears that prenatal exposure to the drug would produce a generation of severely damaged children. Newspapers carried headlines like 'Cocaine: A Vicious Assault on a Child,' 'Crack’s Toll Among Babies: A Joyless View' and 'Studies: Future Bleak for Crack Babies.'</blockquote>
 
It turns out that while cocaine is not exactly beneficial, the pessimistic prognosis in the media did not pan out.
 
<blockquote>So far, these scientists say, the long-term effects of [cocaine] exposure on children’s brain development and behavior appear relatively small. 'Are there differences? Yes,' said Barry M. Lester, a professor of psychiatry at Brown University who directs the Maternal Lifestyle Study, a large federally financed study of children exposed to cocaine in the womb. 'Are they reliable and persistent? Yes. Are they big? No.' </blockquote>
 
Research in this area is difficult, of course, because the data is observational and there are a whole host of confounders.
 
<blockquote>"...factors like poor parenting, poverty and stresses like exposure to violence were far more likely to damage a child’s intellectual and emotional development — and by the same token, growing up in a stable household, with parents who do not abuse alcohol or drugs, can do much to ease any harmful effects of prenatal drug exposure."</blockquote>
 
Another area ripe for debunking is the explosion of risky teenage sexual behavior.
 
<blockquote>The talk show host Tyra Banks declared a teen sex crisis last fall after her show surveyed girls about sexual behavior. A few years ago, Oprah Winfrey warned parents of a teenage oral-sex epidemic. The news is troubling, but it’s also misleading.</blockquote>
 
Again, these risks seem to be overstated.
 
<blockquote>While some young people are clearly engaging in risky sexual behavior, a vast majority are not. The reality is that in many ways, today’s teenagers are more conservative about sex than previous generations. </blockquote>
 
One researcher in the area notes the desire of many to hold on to a pessimistic perspective.
 
<blockquote>'I give presentations nationwide where I’m showing people that the virginity rate in college is higher than you think and the number of partners is lower than you think and hooking up more often than not does not mean intercourse,' Dr. Bogle said. 'But so many people think we’re morally in trouble, in a downward spiral and teens are out of control. It’s very difficult to convince people otherwise.'</blockquote>

Revision as of 21:01, 29 January 2009

Quotation

Forsooth

Game Theory Explains Why You Can't Hurry Love.

"From a female's point of view, males are not all equal" and "there remains some risk that she will mate with the wrong type of male. She cannot eliminate this risk completely unless she decides never to mate."

Dr Peter Sozou
Warwick Medical School and
LSE Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science.
Quoted in Science Daily
Commenting upon here
And the math is here

Submitted by Paul Alper

Statistics with heart-pounding excitement

The Manga Guide to Statistics, Shin Takahashi and Trend-pro Co., November 2008, 224 pp.

I suppose it was only a matter of time - now you can be entertained by a manga cartoon and learn about statistics at the same time:

Our heroine, Rui, is determined to learn about statistics to impress the dreamy Mr. Igarashi and begs her father for a tutor. Soon she's spending her Saturdays with geeky, bespectacled Mr. Yamamoto, who patiently teaches her all about the fundamentals of statistics: topics like data categorization, averages, graphing, and standard deviation.

This comic uses real-world examples like teen magazine quizzes, bowling games, test scores, and ramen noodle prices to enliven the subject matter. Not surprisingly, the intended readers are people interested in learning more about statistics.

After all her studying, Rui is confident in her knowledge of statistics, including complex concepts like probability, coefficients of correlation, hypothesis tests, and tests of independence. But is it enough to impress her dream guy? Or maybe there's someone better, right in front of her?

Examples, exercises, and answer keys help you follow along and check your work. An appendix showing how to perform statistics calculations in Microsoft Excel makes it easy to put Rui's lessons into practice.

Further Reading

No Starch Press publishes the finest in geek entertainment -- distinctive books on computing, such as bestsellers Steal This Computer Book, How Linux Works, Hacking: The Art of Exploitation, The Cult of Mac, and The Unofficial LEGO Builder's Guide, with a focus on open source/Linux, security, hacking, programming, and alternative operating systems.

Submitted by John Gavin.

You are what your mother eats.

Here we will discussion of an article in the Wall Street Journal

which is based on an article"You are what your mother eats" in the Proceedings of the Royal Society and on a criticism of this article: "Ceareal-Induced gender selection? Most likely a multiple testing false positive} in the same journal.

You might want to read these articles before we figure out something wize to say about the articles.

To be continued.

Submitted by Laurie Snell

Two media frenzies not supported by the data

The Epidemic That Wasn’t, Susan Okie, The New York Times, January 26, 2009.

The Myth of Rampant Teenage Promiscuity, Tara Parker-Pope, The New York Times, January 26, 2009.

Two articles in the New York Times use statistics to debunk media reports of pending social disasters.

"When the use of crack cocaine became a nationwide epidemic in the 1980s and ’90s, there were widespread fears that prenatal exposure to the drug would produce a generation of severely damaged children. Newspapers carried headlines like 'Cocaine: A Vicious Assault on a Child,' 'Crack’s Toll Among Babies: A Joyless View' and 'Studies: Future Bleak for Crack Babies.'

It turns out that while cocaine is not exactly beneficial, the pessimistic prognosis in the media did not pan out.

So far, these scientists say, the long-term effects of [cocaine] exposure on children’s brain development and behavior appear relatively small. 'Are there differences? Yes,' said Barry M. Lester, a professor of psychiatry at Brown University who directs the Maternal Lifestyle Study, a large federally financed study of children exposed to cocaine in the womb. 'Are they reliable and persistent? Yes. Are they big? No.'

Research in this area is difficult, of course, because the data is observational and there are a whole host of confounders.

"...factors like poor parenting, poverty and stresses like exposure to violence were far more likely to damage a child’s intellectual and emotional development — and by the same token, growing up in a stable household, with parents who do not abuse alcohol or drugs, can do much to ease any harmful effects of prenatal drug exposure."

Another area ripe for debunking is the explosion of risky teenage sexual behavior.

The talk show host Tyra Banks declared a teen sex crisis last fall after her show surveyed girls about sexual behavior. A few years ago, Oprah Winfrey warned parents of a teenage oral-sex epidemic. The news is troubling, but it’s also misleading.

Again, these risks seem to be overstated.

While some young people are clearly engaging in risky sexual behavior, a vast majority are not. The reality is that in many ways, today’s teenagers are more conservative about sex than previous generations.

One researcher in the area notes the desire of many to hold on to a pessimistic perspective.

'I give presentations nationwide where I’m showing people that the virginity rate in college is higher than you think and the number of partners is lower than you think and hooking up more often than not does not mean intercourse,' Dr. Bogle said. 'But so many people think we’re morally in trouble, in a downward spiral and teens are out of control. It’s very difficult to convince people otherwise.'