Chance News 41: Difference between revisions

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[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/weekinreview/12zernike.html Do polls lie about race?] Kate Zernike, The New York Times, October 12, 2008.
[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/weekinreview/12zernike.html Do polls lie about race?] Kate Zernike, The New York Times, October 12, 2008.


There has been a lot written about the "Bradley effect." This is a phenomenon first noted in the race for governor of California in 1982, where the Los Angeles mayor, Tom Bradley, polled far ahead of his competition, but lost by a small margin. This phenomenon was also noted in elections involving Harold Washington, David Dinkins, and Douglas Wilder. All of these candidates were black men and in these elections the results of the polls were more favorable to the black candidates than the election results. The belief is that people who are polled don't want to appear bigoted to the pollster by opposing the black candidate, but fell no such social pressure when casting their ballots.
There has been a lot written about the "Bradley effect." This is a phenomenon first noted in the race for governor of California in 1982, where the Los Angeles mayor, Tom Bradley, polled far ahead of his competition, but lost by a small margin. This phenomenon was also noted in elections involving Harold Washington, David Dinkins, and Douglas Wilder. All of these candidates were black men and in these elections the results of the polls were more favorable to the black candidates than the election results. The belief is that people who are polled don't want to appear bigoted to the pollster by opposing the black candidate, but feel no such social pressure when casting their ballots.


<blockquote>In recent days, nervous Obama supporters have traded worry about a survey — widely disputed by pollsters yet voraciously consumed by the politically obsessed — that concluded racial bias would cost Mr. Obama six percentage points in the final outcome.</blockquote>
<blockquote>In recent days, nervous Obama supporters have traded worry about a survey — widely disputed by pollsters yet voraciously consumed by the politically obsessed — that concluded racial bias would cost Mr. Obama six percentage points in the final outcome.</blockquote>

Revision as of 00:14, 13 October 2008

Quotation

Forsooth

Is the Bradley effect real?

Do polls lie about race? Kate Zernike, The New York Times, October 12, 2008.

There has been a lot written about the "Bradley effect." This is a phenomenon first noted in the race for governor of California in 1982, where the Los Angeles mayor, Tom Bradley, polled far ahead of his competition, but lost by a small margin. This phenomenon was also noted in elections involving Harold Washington, David Dinkins, and Douglas Wilder. All of these candidates were black men and in these elections the results of the polls were more favorable to the black candidates than the election results. The belief is that people who are polled don't want to appear bigoted to the pollster by opposing the black candidate, but feel no such social pressure when casting their ballots.

In recent days, nervous Obama supporters have traded worry about a survey — widely disputed by pollsters yet voraciously consumed by the politically obsessed — that concluded racial bias would cost Mr. Obama six percentage points in the final outcome.

Is that true? Perhaps there is a Bradley effect, but perhaps not.

But pollsters and political scientists say concern about a Bradley effect — some call it a Wilder effect or a Dinkins effect, and plenty call it a theory in search of data — is misplaced. It obscures what they argue is the more important point: there are plenty of ways that race complicates polling. Considered alone or in combination, these factors could produce an unforeseen Obama landslide with surprise victories in the South, a stunningly large Obama loss, or a recount-thin margin. In a year that has already turned expectations upside down, it is hard to completely reassure the fretters.

The article notes situations where there may be a reverse Bradley effect. This occurs when

polls understate support for a black candidate, particularly in regions where it is socially acceptable to express distrust of blacks.

More critical than social expectations, perhaps, is an even more fundamental issue about polling.

Research shows that those who refuse to participate in surveys tend to be less likely to vote for a black candidate.

One survey researcher, Andrew Kohut, got at this indirectly by comparing people who responded immediately to those that required some extra effort.

Mr. Kohut conducted a study in 1997 looking at differences between people who readily agreed to be polled and those who agreed only after one or more callbacks. Reluctant participants were significantly more likely to have negative attitudes toward blacks — 15 percent said they had a “very favorable” attitude toward them, as opposed to 24 percent of the ready respondents. “The kinds of people suspicious of surveys are also more intolerant,” Mr. Kohut said.

The article discusses some of the issues involving the race of the person conducting the survey interview.

A further complication is the race of the person who asks the questions. Talking to a white interviewer, blacks or whites are more likely to say that they are supporting the white candidate; talking to a black interviewer, people are more likely to support the black candidate. This holds true whether the surveys are in person, or on the phone.

It is unclear, however, which type of interviewer is more likely to produce an accurate response.

Submitted by Steve Simon

Questions

1. If there is indeed a Bradley effect, is there any statistical adjustment that could be made to produce more accurate election polling results?

2. Does the study by Andrew Kohut produce a valid conclusion about the racial attitudes of non-respondents?

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