Chance News 25: Difference between revisions

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<div align=right>The Spectator<br>30 December 2006
<div align=right>The Spectator<br>30 December 2006
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==Statistics in the Doctors Office==
This is going to be an unscientific look at a number of medical statistics I have run into, so far. It is inspired by the great titlef the article in Chance News 24 that included the words "medical research", and "rot" in the same breath.
When I was born, quite premature, the doctors said I had a 50 50 chance of staying alive. My father said he told my mother that this meant they did not know what the the probability was.
I met my husband at 39, got married over the age of 40, and gave birth with my own eggs to a healthy child at the age of 43. Statistically speaking, chance was on my side.
In January 2006, I had a large node on my thyroid, and was told by my doctor to have it removed in 2 months. I then went to a specialist, who said there was a 30 percent chance it was Cancer, although if it wasn't yet cancer, it would most likely develop into cancer because of its size. He said there was no chance it would shrink. I went to another specialist, who said surgery should be done by Labor Day. I went back to the first specialist, who agreed with this timetable. These days I tend to ask, not "what is my chance" but, "how long do I have before I have to make a permanent decision?"
To pass the time before this surgery, that was beginning to seem inevitable, I went to a Tibetan medicine doctor, researched yoga poses to help the thyroid, and altered my diet. I also got more childcare help for my child. Come Labor Day, and I did my pre-op, then insisted on having a final
meeting and sonogram with the endocrinologist. I figured if they did a sonogram right before going into surgery, it would be statistically highly unlikely for them to cancel surgery once everyone had been
called into the room, and the surgeon had taken that hour or two just for me.
I scheduled the final sonogram one week before the surgery, with an endocrinologist who works closely with the surgeon. They are on the same team, so to speak. She was one of the coldest doctors I have ever met, and she had no regard for alternative medicine, so I figured she was the one to go to. Without any emotion or hint in her face, the endocrinologist scanned my throat over and over again, and then suddenly said,  "Cancel the surgery. Nothing is over 1 cm. There are no nodes large enough to even have another biopsy on. (My node had been 2.6 cm, and had previously flunked a biopsy)
I have no data to support any alternative medicine I went through, I go to this same endocrinologist every six months for check ups. I continue to be a non-advocate for both western and eastern medicine, but have recently become a certified yoga teacher just in case someone else wants to, if nothing else, distract themselves while they are procrastinating.
Submitted by Mary Snell

Revision as of 20:22, 17 March 2007

Quotations

Do not put faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. William W. Watt


These Forsooth's are from the March 2007 RSS News.

Almost 200 workers are to lose their jobs at Lincolnshire factory after rescue attempts to keep it open failed, the trade union Amicus has confirmed.

BBC news website
12 December 2006

Despite the ceaseless terrorist attacks on the country's infrastructure and particulary the oil industry, the value of the Iraqi dinar has continued to rise-in November, from D1,410 to the doller to D1,480. That is obviously good for the vast majority of people whose pay comes in dinars.

The Spectator
30 December 2006

Statistics in the Doctors Office

This is going to be an unscientific look at a number of medical statistics I have run into, so far. It is inspired by the great titlef the article in Chance News 24 that included the words "medical research", and "rot" in the same breath.

When I was born, quite premature, the doctors said I had a 50 50 chance of staying alive. My father said he told my mother that this meant they did not know what the the probability was.

I met my husband at 39, got married over the age of 40, and gave birth with my own eggs to a healthy child at the age of 43. Statistically speaking, chance was on my side.

In January 2006, I had a large node on my thyroid, and was told by my doctor to have it removed in 2 months. I then went to a specialist, who said there was a 30 percent chance it was Cancer, although if it wasn't yet cancer, it would most likely develop into cancer because of its size. He said there was no chance it would shrink. I went to another specialist, who said surgery should be done by Labor Day. I went back to the first specialist, who agreed with this timetable. These days I tend to ask, not "what is my chance" but, "how long do I have before I have to make a permanent decision?"

To pass the time before this surgery, that was beginning to seem inevitable, I went to a Tibetan medicine doctor, researched yoga poses to help the thyroid, and altered my diet. I also got more childcare help for my child. Come Labor Day, and I did my pre-op, then insisted on having a final meeting and sonogram with the endocrinologist. I figured if they did a sonogram right before going into surgery, it would be statistically highly unlikely for them to cancel surgery once everyone had been called into the room, and the surgeon had taken that hour or two just for me.

I scheduled the final sonogram one week before the surgery, with an endocrinologist who works closely with the surgeon. They are on the same team, so to speak. She was one of the coldest doctors I have ever met, and she had no regard for alternative medicine, so I figured she was the one to go to. Without any emotion or hint in her face, the endocrinologist scanned my throat over and over again, and then suddenly said, "Cancel the surgery. Nothing is over 1 cm. There are no nodes large enough to even have another biopsy on. (My node had been 2.6 cm, and had previously flunked a biopsy)

I have no data to support any alternative medicine I went through, I go to this same endocrinologist every six months for check ups. I continue to be a non-advocate for both western and eastern medicine, but have recently become a certified yoga teacher just in case someone else wants to, if nothing else, distract themselves while they are procrastinating.

Submitted by Mary Snell