https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&feed=atom&action=historyChance News 20 - Revision history2024-03-29T10:46:03ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=13228&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Do man-made factors fuel hurricanes? */2006-10-23T19:06:22Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Do man-made factors fuel hurricanes?</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reports an 84 percent chance that human activities are responsible for most of the recent heating in the Atlantic and Pacific ocean regions where hurricanes form. Overall, oceans have warmed approximately 1 degree Fahrenheit over the last century, a change which the study says cannot be attributed to natural cycles. That claim is based on extensive computer simulations that try to model climate systems under different scenarios, including volcanoes, fluctuations in solar fluctations and human effects on the atmosphere. No combination of natural factors was able to reproduce the observed warming.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reports an 84 percent chance that human activities are responsible for most of the recent heating in the Atlantic and Pacific ocean regions where hurricanes form. Overall, oceans have warmed approximately 1 degree Fahrenheit over the last century, a change which the study says cannot be attributed to natural cycles. That claim is based on extensive computer simulations that try to model climate systems under different scenarios, including volcanoes, fluctuations in solar fluctations and human effects on the atmosphere. No combination of natural factors was able to reproduce the observed warming.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It is well known that warm water contributes to hurricane intensity, so the study helps bolster the case of scientists who warned that average hurricane intensity has been increasing as a result of global warming. Others caution, however, that the evidence is not yet clear. Among the objections cited in the article are concerns about underestimation of the strength of earlier storms, and questions about whether the observed warming is sufficient to explain the strength of recent storms. </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It is well known that warm water contributes to hurricane intensity, so the study helps bolster the case of scientists who warned that average hurricane intensity has been increasing as a result of global warming. <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The Globe article includes a data graphic ([http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2006/09/12/hurricanes_oceans_graphic/]) to illustrate this association. </ins>Others caution, however, that the evidence is not yet clear. Among the objections cited in the article are concerns about underestimation of the strength of earlier storms, and questions about whether the observed warming is sufficient to explain the strength of recent storms. </div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Since Hurricane Katrina last year, there has been a great deal of public debate about possible human influences on hurricane intensity. The August 2006 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) has an excellent review of the matter, entitled [http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Webster2006d.pdf#search=%22BAMS%20mixing%20politics%20and%20science%22 &quot;Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming Is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity&quot;]. The authors analyze in considerable detail the structure of the arguments put forward by skeptics of climate change, taking care to distinguish valid criticisms from logical fallacies. After debunking the logical fallacies, they outline the kinds of scientific investigations that could be used to rationally settle the open questions. A sidebar in the article includes a taxonomy of logical fallacies (such as ''ad hominem fallacy'', ''begging the question'', etc.). For example, &quot;''Statistical special pleading'' occurs when the interpretation</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Since Hurricane Katrina last year, there has been a great deal of public debate about possible human influences on hurricane intensity. The August 2006 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) has an excellent review of the matter, entitled [http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Webster2006d.pdf#search=%22BAMS%20mixing%20politics%20and%20science%22 &quot;Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming Is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity&quot;]. The authors analyze in considerable detail the structure of the arguments put forward by skeptics of climate change, taking care to distinguish valid criticisms from logical fallacies. After debunking the logical fallacies, they outline the kinds of scientific investigations that could be used to rationally settle the open questions. A sidebar in the article includes a taxonomy of logical fallacies (such as ''ad hominem fallacy'', ''begging the question'', etc.). For example, &quot;''Statistical special pleading'' occurs when the interpretation</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=3146&oldid=prevJeremymiles: /* Forsooth */2006-10-17T04:08:02Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Forsooth</span></span></p>
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</table>Jeremymileshttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=3134&oldid=prevJls: /* A car talk puzzle */2006-10-12T00:19:50Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A car talk puzzle</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==A car talk puzzle==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==A car talk puzzle==</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The bullet holes were all over the place on the R.A.F. planes -- in the wings and the fuselage, and seemingly distributed randomly on the undersides. So, where did the R.A.F. mathematician recommend extra armor, to save future missions?</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The bullet holes were all over the place on the R.A.F. planes -- in the wings and the fuselage, and seemingly distributed randomly on the undersides. So, where did the R.A.F. mathematician recommend extra armor, to save future missions?</div></td></tr>
</table>Jlshttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=3111&oldid=prevMmartin: /* A Reader's Guide to Polls */2006-10-03T23:49:09Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A Reader's Guide to Polls</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote>I'm very troubled by this methodology. As an <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">op</del>-in non-probability sample, it lacks scientific validity in that your respondents are not generalizable to the population you purport to make inferences about. As such the report of the findings may be seriously misleading. I do not accept the distinction you make between academic research and a "public opinion" survey. </blockquote> </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote>I'm very troubled by this methodology. As an <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">opt</ins>-in non-probability sample, it lacks scientific validity in that your respondents are not generalizable to the population you purport to make inferences about. As such the report of the findings may be seriously misleading. I do not accept the distinction you make between academic research and a "public opinion" survey. </blockquote> </div></td></tr>
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</table>Mmartinhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=3060&oldid=prevJls: /* Mean vs. Median */2006-10-03T19:16:54Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Mean vs. Median</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This latest installment of "Who's Counting" focuses on the distinction between the mean and median. Paulos begins with the familiar example of housing prices, and goes on to discuss the implications for interpreting newly released data on the performance of the US economy for 2004. Republicans point out that the economy grew at a rate of 4.2%, and complain that they are not getting enough credit for the good news. Democrats counter that real median income is falling and poverty is rising. How can both be true? Just as a few expensive houses in a neighborhood can pull the mean substantially above the median, gains by a wealthy few at the top of the income ladder can pull up the mean, even if most people are not benefiting. </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This latest installment of "Who's Counting" focuses on the distinction between the mean and median. Paulos begins with the familiar example of housing prices, and goes on to discuss the implications for interpreting newly released data on the performance of the US economy for 2004. Republicans point out that the economy grew at a rate of 4.2%, and complain that they are not getting enough credit for the good news. Democrats counter that real median income is falling and poverty is rising. How can both be true? Just as a few expensive houses in a neighborhood can pull the mean substantially above the median, gains by a wealthy few at the top of the income ladder can pull up the mean, even if most people are not benefiting. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To show that this is happening, Paulos cites work on income distribution by economists Thomas <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Picketty </del>and Emmanuel Satz. According to their calculations, the the richest one percent, whose incomes exceed $315,000, gained on average nearly 17% over the year in question. However, the good news did not extend very far down the income distribution. Looking at the top five percent of all incomes, the average gain is described as "minimal." This means that the gains were concentrated near the very top. In fact, even among the top one percent, Picketty and Satz found that half of income gains went to the top tenth of the group.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To show that this is happening, Paulos cites work on income distribution by economists Thomas <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Piketty </ins>and Emmanuel Satz. According to their calculations, the the richest one percent, whose incomes exceed $315,000, gained on average nearly 17% over the year in question. However, the good news did not extend very far down the income distribution. Looking at the top five percent of all incomes, the average gain is described as "minimal." This means that the gains were concentrated near the very top. In fact, even among the top one percent, Picketty and Satz found that half of income gains went to the top tenth of the group.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Paulos points out that the pattern of the income distribution can be described mathematically in terms of so-called "power laws," which apply to a variety of observed phenomenon, including Internet surfing and investing. A general description of power laws from Wikipedia can be found [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution here]. <br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Paulos points out that the pattern of the income distribution can be described mathematically in terms of so-called "power laws," which apply to a variety of observed phenomenon, including Internet surfing and investing. A general description of power laws from Wikipedia can be found [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution here]. <br></div></td></tr>
</table>Jlshttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=3059&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Exit poll inventor dies aged 71 */2006-10-02T12:01:50Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Exit poll inventor dies aged 71</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 12:01, 2 October 2006</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/09/02/obit.mitofsky/index.html Mitofsky, 'father of exit polling,' dies at 72], CNN 09.03.06.<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/09/02/obit.mitofsky/index.html Mitofsky, 'father of exit polling,' dies at 72], CNN 09.03.06.<br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/lastword_15sept2006.shtml Warren J Mitofsky, Pollster who has died aged 71], Last Word, BBC Radio 4, Friday 15th Sep 2006.<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/lastword_15sept2006.shtml Warren J Mitofsky, Pollster who has died aged 71], Last Word, BBC Radio 4, Friday 15th Sep 2006.<br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WARREN_MITOFSKY Warren Mitofsky] considered by many to be the "father of exit polling", changed the way the media covers elections by pioneering the use of exit polls.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WARREN_MITOFSKY Warren Mitofsky] considered by many to be the "father of exit polling", changed the way the media covers elections by pioneering the use of exit polls.</div></td></tr>
</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=3055&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Exit poll inventor dies aged 71 */2006-10-02T12:01:31Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Exit poll inventor dies aged 71</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 12:01, 2 October 2006</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WARREN_MITOFSKY Warren Mitofsky] considered by many to be the "father of exit polling", changed the way the media covers elections by pioneering the use of exit polls.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WARREN_MITOFSKY Warren Mitofsky] considered by many to be the "father of exit polling", changed the way the media covers elections by pioneering the use of exit polls.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>An exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks who the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks who the voter actually voted for<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">. </del>(<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">From </del>[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_polling Wikipedia]).</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>An exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks who the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks who the voter actually voted for (<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">from </ins>[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_polling Wikipedia]).</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/09/03/politics/main1963665.shtml CBS News] said</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/09/03/politics/main1963665.shtml CBS News] said</div></td></tr>
</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=3054&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Exit poll inventor dies aged 71 */2006-10-02T12:00:43Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Exit poll inventor dies aged 71</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Exit poll inventor dies aged 71==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Exit poll inventor dies aged 71==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/09/02/obit.mitofsky/index.html Mitofsky, 'father of exit polling,' dies at 72], CNN 09.03.06.<br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/lastword_15sept2006.shtml Warren J Mitofsky, Pollster who has died aged 71], Last Word, BBC Radio 4, Friday 15th Sep 2006.<br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WARREN_MITOFSKY Warren Mitofsky] considered by many to be the "father of exit polling", changed the way the media covers elections by pioneering the use of exit polls.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WARREN_MITOFSKY Warren Mitofsky] considered by many to be the "father of exit polling", changed the way the media covers elections by pioneering the use of exit polls.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Futher reading===</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Futher reading===</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [http://www.math.temple.edu/~paulos/exit.html Final Tallies Minus Exit Polls = A Statistical Mystery!], by John Allen Paulos, OpEd in the Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 24, 2004.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [http://www.math.temple.edu/~paulos/exit.html Final Tallies Minus Exit Polls = A Statistical Mystery!], by John Allen Paulos, OpEd in the Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 24, 2004.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* [http://www.google.co.uk/search?num=30&hl=en&safe=off&q=warren+mitofsky+obituary&meta= Obituaries] via Google.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by John Gavin.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by John Gavin.</div></td></tr>
</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=3053&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Futher reading */2006-10-02T11:57:43Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Futher reading</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Futher reading===</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Futher reading===</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">cnn</del>.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">com</del>/<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">2006</del>/<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">US/09/02/obit.mitofsky/index</del>.html <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Mitofsky</del>, <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">'father of exit polling</del>,<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">' dies at 72]</del>, <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">CNN 09</del>.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">03.06</del>.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* </ins>[http://www.<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">math</ins>.<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">temple.edu</ins>/<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">~paulos</ins>/<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">exit</ins>.html <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Final Tallies Minus Exit Polls = A Statistical Mystery!]</ins>, <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">by John Allen Paulos</ins>, <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">OpEd in the Philadelphia Inquirer</ins>, <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Nov</ins>. <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">24, 2004</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Submitted by John Gavin.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Do man-made factors fuel hurricanes?==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Do man-made factors fuel hurricanes?==</div></td></tr>
</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_20&diff=3052&oldid=prevJls: /* A clumsy attempt at anonymization */2006-09-29T13:31:44Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">A clumsy attempt at anonymization</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:31, 29 September 2006</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Statisticians frequently deal with confidentiality issues when deciding what type of data and what amount of detail should be withheld to protect sensitive information about individual patients or institutions. It's not an easy task and there are some subtle traps. And sometimes there are not so subtle traps.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Statisticians frequently deal with confidentiality issues when deciding what type of data and what amount of detail should be withheld to protect sensitive information about individual patients or institutions. It's not an easy task and there are some subtle traps. And sometimes there are not so subtle traps.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At the request of some researchers, America Online (AOL) released data on 20 million web searches performed 650 thousand AOL users over a three month span. They released the data, not just to those researchers, but to the general public. AOL quickly realized that this was a bad idea and removed the database, but it had already been copied to many locations. It is unlikely that they will ever be able to persuade the web owners at all the other locations to take the files offline.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>At the request of some researchers, America Online (AOL) released data on 20 million web searches performed 650 <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">by </ins>thousand AOL users over a three month span. They released the data, not just to those researchers, but to the general public. AOL quickly realized that this was a bad idea and removed the database, but it had already been copied to many locations. It is unlikely that they will ever be able to persuade the web owners at all the other locations to take the files offline.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The data was anonymized by replacing the user name with a random number. This is important, because some of the search terms are for rather sensitive items. Examples of things that people searched on are</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The data was anonymized by replacing the user name with a random number. This is important, because some of the search terms are for rather sensitive items. Examples of things that people searched on are</div></td></tr>
</table>Jls