Difference between revisions of "Chance News 114"

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"I have found it intriguing to narrate the history of statistics as viewed from the special lens of its orphaned sister: causation. The story of this 'forbidden love' was never told before and, believe me, it is full of mystery, intrigue, personalities, dogmatic orthodoxy, and heroic champions of truth and conviction."
 
"I have found it intriguing to narrate the history of statistics as viewed from the special lens of its orphaned sister: causation. The story of this 'forbidden love' was never told before and, believe me, it is full of mystery, intrigue, personalities, dogmatic orthodoxy, and heroic champions of truth and conviction."
  
<div align=right> --Judea Pearl, in an [http://magazine.amstat.org/blog/2018/08/01/judeapearl-interview/ interview] with ASA Executive Director Ron Wasserstein, ''AmStat News'', 1 August 2018  </div>
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<div align=right> -- Judea Pearl, in an [http://magazine.amstat.org/blog/2018/08/01/judeapearl-interview/ interview] with ASA Executive Director Ron Wasserstein, ''AmStat News'', 1 August 2018  </div>
  
 
==Forsooth==
 
==Forsooth==

Revision as of 19:19, 8 August 2018

July 1, 2018 to ...

Quotations

"I have found it intriguing to narrate the history of statistics as viewed from the special lens of its orphaned sister: causation. The story of this 'forbidden love' was never told before and, believe me, it is full of mystery, intrigue, personalities, dogmatic orthodoxy, and heroic champions of truth and conviction."

-- Judea Pearl, in an interview with ASA Executive Director Ron Wasserstein, AmStat News, 1 August 2018

Forsooth

“That means then that criminal aliens are committing 28 percent of the crimes in the United States. And so that means 28 percent of the murders, 28 percent of the rapes, 28 percent of the violence and the assaults and battery, first- and second-degree murder and also manslaughter attacks are committed by criminal aliens.”

-- Representative Steve King (R-Iowa), quoted in: Fact-checking President Trump’s numbers on the ‘human toll of illegal immigration’, Washington Post, 6 July 2018

Never too early to start!

Distributions.jpg

Submitted by David Ballard

(Note: It's a real puzzle toy, and apparently sold out!)

How likely is "likely"?

If you say something is “likely,” how likely do people think it is?
by Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin, Harvard Business Review, 3 July 2018

Counting LA's homeless

More sidewalk tents, but fewer people living in them? The 2018 homeless count's new math
by Dakota Smith and Doug Smith, Los Angeles Times, 15 July 2018

Plastic straws

How a 9-year-old boy’s statistic shaped a debate on straws
by Niraj Chokshi, New York Times, 19 July 19 2018

Alzheimer's drug study

Why the latest Alzheimer’s drug study has so many people confused
by Clifton Leaf, Fortune, 30 July 2018

Examines conflicting reports in the popular press concerning a recent Alzheimer's drug study; For example, see the following stories:

Workplace wellness programs

Workplace wellness programs don’t work well. Why some studies show otherwise
by Aaron E. Carroll, New York Times, "TheUpshot" blog, 6 August 2018

Compares results of observational studies with subsequent randomized trials. In a number of cases, the effects found in the earlier studies are seen to disappear. Article includes the following graphic:

IllinoisWellness.png