Difference between revisions of "Chance News 113"

From ChanceWiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
Line 16: Line 16:
 
We at least have models for something like two people coming to work wearing the same shoes or both getting a haircut the day before, but this is the equivalent of lightning striking in the same place hundreds of times in a row. We’re going to have to go back to the drawing board on probability analysis entirely.
 
We at least have models for something like two people coming to work wearing the same shoes or both getting a haircut the day before, but this is the equivalent of lightning striking in the same place hundreds of times in a row. We’re going to have to go back to the drawing board on probability analysis entirely.
 
</blockquote>
 
</blockquote>
 +
 +
==Interpreting exit polls==
 +
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/29/opinion/2016-exit-polls-election.html The 2016 exit polls led us to misinterpret the 2016 election]<br>
 +
by Thomas Edsall, ''New York Times'', 29 March 2018
 +
 +
==Hurricane death tolls==
 +
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/02/us/puerto-rico-death-tolls.html Why are the death tolls in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria so different?]<br>
 +
by Sheri Fink, ''New York Times'', 2 June 2018
 +
 +
==Mediterranean diet controversy==
 +
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/health/mediterranean-diet-heart-disease.html That huge Mediterranean diet study was flawed. But was it wrong?]<br>
 +
by Gina Kolata, ''New York Times'', 13 June 2018

Revision as of 14:25, 26 July 2018

Quotations

“The court will not rely on extrapolated numbers from tiny samples sizes and otherwise flawed data.”

-- Judge Julie A. Robinson, quoted in: A crusader against voter fraud fails to prove his case, New York Times, 19 June 2018

Forsooth

Item 1

Matching shirts!

Leading probability researchers confounded by three coworkers wearing same shirt color on same day
The Onion, 18 January 2018

A lovely spoof on coincidence stories. We read the following breathless quote from "researchers":

We at least have models for something like two people coming to work wearing the same shoes or both getting a haircut the day before, but this is the equivalent of lightning striking in the same place hundreds of times in a row. We’re going to have to go back to the drawing board on probability analysis entirely.

Interpreting exit polls

The 2016 exit polls led us to misinterpret the 2016 election
by Thomas Edsall, New York Times, 29 March 2018

Hurricane death tolls

Why are the death tolls in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria so different?
by Sheri Fink, New York Times, 2 June 2018

Mediterranean diet controversy

That huge Mediterranean diet study was flawed. But was it wrong?
by Gina Kolata, New York Times, 13 June 2018