Difference between revisions of "Chance News 112"

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To be continued...
 
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==How bad/good were the predictions about Hurricane Irma==
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[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/forecast-irma-shift-florida.html Irma Shifting Forecast: It's All a Matter of Probability]
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How surprising is it that Irma is heading up the "wrong" coast of Florida? Well, it changed the plans of one expert.
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<blockquote>Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miama and respected blogger on tropical storms and hurricanes, decided on Thursday to evacuate from South Florida with friends and his two dogs and drive to the Tampa area.</blockquote>

Revision as of 23:16, 10 September 2017

Under construction: August 21, 2017 to ...

Quotations

Forsooth

"Of the 36 applicants that were interviewed, 20 were ultimately promoted... . Among the promoted individuals, 62 percent were female and 38 percent were male."

in: “Woefully thin statistics” doom adverse impact claim, JDSUPRA.com, 24 August 2017

The graphic below appears in: New study reveals bartenders, casino workers most likely to get divorced, Inverse Culture, 5 September 2017

Divorce scatter.png


(Note: The scatterplot was originally created by FlowingData, where the relationship is correctly described as "downward slopey"; the caption above is from the Inverse Culture article.)

Lecture on football probability

Margaret Cibes sent a link to the following YouTube video:

John Urschel-NFL Math Whiz: Real Sports Full Segment (HBO)

It features John Urschel, an offensive for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, who is also studying applied mathematics at MIT. The video begins with John at a chalkboard using a decision tree to analyze a one-point vs. two-point conversion late in a football game.

John is already a published mathematician, as described in this 2016 article from the Notices of the AMS.

Redefining statistical significance

Scholars take aim at false positives in research
by Thomas Gaulkin, UChicagoNews, 1 September 2017

University Chicago economist John List is one of 72 collaborators whose commentary, Redfine statistical significance, was just published in Nature Human Behavior. The subtitle reads, "We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of new discoveries."

To be continued...

How bad/good were the predictions about Hurricane Irma

Irma Shifting Forecast: It's All a Matter of Probability

How surprising is it that Irma is heading up the "wrong" coast of Florida? Well, it changed the plans of one expert.

Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miama and respected blogger on tropical storms and hurricanes, decided on Thursday to evacuate from South Florida with friends and his two dogs and drive to the Tampa area.