Chance News 111

July 1, 2017 to ...

"Random" seat allocation

Ryanair's 'random' seat allocation not random - scientists
by John von Radowitz, Irish Independent, 30 June 2017

Ryanair is an Irish low-cost airline. This Wikipedia entry notes that they have often faced criticism for misleading advertising among other issues.

The Irish Independent article reports on the airline's policy that passengers who did not wish to pay extra for seating will be assigned seats "at random." Advertising on the airline's website says, "Can't stand the middle seat? Don't leave it to chance, take your pick from a choice of seats. Get up to 50pc off reserved seats with prices starting at £2."

But is it up to chance? In light of customer complaints, the BBC consumer affairs programme, 'Watchdog' asked statisticians at Oxford University to test this claim. The researchers had four groups of four passengers book travel on four separate flights, all under the random seating option. On every flight, all of the passengers got middle seats. They estimated the odds of this happening at about 1:540,000,000. Compare this to the 1:45,000,000 odds of winning the UK National Lottery jackpot. Dr. Jennifer Rogers, director of Oxford University's Statistical Consultancy, is quoted as saying, "This is a highly controversial topic and my analysis cast doubt on whether Ryanair's seat allocation can be purely random."

The article also includes a statement from Ryanair offering the following explanation (which qualifies as an extended Forsooth!):

We haven't changed the random seat allocation policy.

The reason for more middle seats being allocated is that more and more passengers are taking our reserved seats (from just £2) and these passengers overwhelmingly prefer aisle and window seats which is why people who choose random (free of charge) seats are more likely to be allocated middle seats.

Some random seat passengers are confused by the appearance of empty seats beside them when they check-in up to four days prior to departure.

The reason they can't have these window or aisle seats is that these are more likely to be selected by reserved seat passengers, many of whom only check in 24 hours prior to departure.

Since our current load factor is 95pc, we have to keep these window and aisle seats free to facilitate those customers who are willing to pay (from £2) for them.

Submitted by Patrick O'Beirne