https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&feed=atom&action=historyChance News 107 - Revision history2024-03-29T10:13:26ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=22252&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Followup */2018-08-23T18:53:27Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Followup</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>See [https://nrich.maths.org/risky How risky is my diet] from the NRICH program at University of Cambridge.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>See [https://nrich.maths.org/risky How risky is my diet] from the NRICH program at University of Cambridge<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">. Includes a video in which Professor David Spiegelhalter responds to a headline about bacon sandwiches</ins>.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=22251&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Red meat and cancer */2018-08-23T18:50:33Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Red meat and cancer</span></span></p>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=22229&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Quotations */2018-08-14T15:37:01Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Quotations</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“If a forecaster says there is a 74% chance the Republicans will win control of the Senate in an upcoming election, [NYT economics journalist David] Leonhardt warned readers, do not conclude the forecast was wrong if the party doesn’t take the Senate because ‘a 74 percent chance it will’ also means ‘a 26 percent chance it won’t.’”</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“If a forecaster says there is a 74% chance the Republicans will win control of the Senate in an upcoming election, [NYT economics journalist David] Leonhardt warned readers, do not conclude the forecast was wrong if the party doesn’t take the Senate because ‘a 74 percent chance it will’ also means ‘a 26 percent chance it won’t.’”</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>Tetlock and Gardner, [http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting/dp/1101905565 <i>Superforecasting</i>], 2015</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-- </ins>Tetlock and Gardner, [http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting/dp/1101905565 <i>Superforecasting</i>], 2015</div></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“It has been shown that people will place larger bets on a coin that has not yet been tossed than on a coin that has already been tossed …. And people will, if asked how much money they would demand to part with a lottery ticket they already hold, give a figure over four times greater if they themselves chose the lottery number on the ticket. Apparently, at some magical level people think that they can influence a coin that has not yet been tossed and influence the likelihood of winning the lottery by choosing the number.”<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“It has been shown that people will place larger bets on a coin that has not yet been tossed than on a coin that has already been tossed …. And people will, if asked how much money they would demand to part with a lottery ticket they already hold, give a figure over four times greater if they themselves chose the lottery number on the ticket. Apparently, at some magical level people think that they can influence a coin that has not yet been tossed and influence the likelihood of winning the lottery by choosing the number.”<br></div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=22228&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Quotations */2018-08-14T15:36:32Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Quotations</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“It has been shown that people will place larger bets on a coin that has not yet been tossed than on a coin that has already been tossed …. And people will, if asked how much money they would demand to part with a lottery ticket they already hold, give a figure over four times greater if they themselves chose the lottery number on the ticket. Apparently, at some magical level people think that they can influence a coin that has not yet been tossed and influence the likelihood of winning the lottery by choosing the number.”<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“It has been shown that people will place larger bets on a coin that has not yet been tossed than on a coin that has already been tossed …. And people will, if asked how much money they would demand to part with a lottery ticket they already hold, give a figure over four times greater if they themselves chose the lottery number on the ticket. Apparently, at some magical level people think that they can influence a coin that has not yet been tossed and influence the likelihood of winning the lottery by choosing the number.”<br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>Robert Shiller in [http://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0767923634 <i>Irrational Exuberance</i>], 2000</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-- </ins>Robert Shiller in [http://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0767923634 <i>Irrational Exuberance</i>], 2000</div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>From an article discussing whether political polls are useful or harmful, relative to their effect on the population, especially due to the non-transparency of the polling methodologies and of the raw data:<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>From an article discussing whether political polls are useful or harmful, relative to their effect on the population, especially due to the non-transparency of the polling methodologies and of the raw data:<br></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“…. Gallup Poll’s former managing editor David Moore [stated] that ‘media polls give us distorted readings of the electoral climate, manufacture a false public consensus on policy issues, and in the process undermine American democracy.’ Polls don’t take the pulse of democracy; they raise it.”</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“…. Gallup Poll’s former managing editor David Moore [stated] that ‘media polls give us distorted readings of the electoral climate, manufacture a false public consensus on policy issues, and in the process undermine American democracy.’ Polls don’t take the pulse of democracy; they raise it.”</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>Jill Lepore, [http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/16/politics-and-the-new-machine “Politics and the New Machine”], <i>The New Yorker</i>, November 16, 2015</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-- </ins>Jill Lepore, [http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/16/politics-and-the-new-machine “Politics and the New Machine”], <i>The New Yorker</i>, November 16, 2015</div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Fisher was a champion of P values as one of several tools to aid the fluid, inductive process of scientific reasoning—not to substitute for it. Fisher used 'significance' merely to indicate that an observation was worth following up, with refutation of the null hypothesis justified only if further experiments 'rarely failed' to achieve significance This is in stark contrast to the modern practice of making claims based on a single demonstration of statistical significance." </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Fisher was a champion of P values as one of several tools to aid the fluid, inductive process of scientific reasoning—not to substitute for it. Fisher used 'significance' merely to indicate that an observation was worth following up, with refutation of the null hypothesis justified only if further experiments 'rarely failed' to achieve significance This is in stark contrast to the modern practice of making claims based on a single demonstration of statistical significance." </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>Steven Goodman, [http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6290/1180.full.pdf+html “Aligning statistical and scientific Reasoning”], <i>Science</i>, June 3, 2016 (subscription required)</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-- </ins>Steven Goodman, [http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6290/1180.full.pdf+html “Aligning statistical and scientific Reasoning”], <i>Science</i>, June 3, 2016 (subscription required)</div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes at the suggestion of Jim Greenwood</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes at the suggestion of Jim Greenwood</div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=22227&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Quotations */2018-08-14T15:36:02Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Quotations</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“If ten thousand people flip a coin, after ten flips the odds are there will be someone who has turned up heads every time. People will hail this man as a genius, with a natural ability to flip heads. Some idiots will actually give him money. This is exactly what happened to LTCM. But it’s obvious that LTCM didn’t know [bleep] about risk control. They were all charlatans.”</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“If ten thousand people flip a coin, after ten flips the odds are there will be someone who has turned up heads every time. People will hail this man as a genius, with a natural ability to flip heads. Some idiots will actually give him money. This is exactly what happened to LTCM. But it’s obvious that LTCM didn’t know [bleep] about risk control. They were all charlatans.”</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>Nassam Nicholas Taleb, cited in [http://www.amazon.com/The-Quants-Whizzes-Conquered-Destroyed/dp/0307453383 <i>The Quants</i>], by Scott Patterson, 2010</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-- </ins>Nassam Nicholas Taleb, cited in [http://www.amazon.com/The-Quants-Whizzes-Conquered-Destroyed/dp/0307453383 <i>The Quants</i>], by Scott Patterson, 2010</div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“[E]conomic decisions are usually best made on the basis of ‘expected value’ …. Clearly just one of the many things that can happen will happen – not the average of all of them. …. I always say I have no interest in being a skydiver who’s successful 95% of the time.”<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“[E]conomic decisions are usually best made on the basis of ‘expected value’ …. Clearly just one of the many things that can happen will happen – not the average of all of them. …. I always say I have no interest in being a skydiver who’s successful 95% of the time.”<br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“Loss occurs when risk – the possibility of loss – collides with negative events. Thus the riskiness of an investment becomes apparent only when it is tested in a negative environment. …. The fact that an investment is susceptible to a serious negative development that will occur only infrequently … can make it appear safer than it really is. …. That’s why Warren Buffett famously said, ‘… you only find out who’s swimming naked when the tide goes out.’”</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“Loss occurs when risk – the possibility of loss – collides with negative events. Thus the riskiness of an investment becomes apparent only when it is tested in a negative environment. …. The fact that an investment is susceptible to a serious negative development that will occur only infrequently … can make it appear safer than it really is. …. That’s why Warren Buffett famously said, ‘… you only find out who’s swimming naked when the tide goes out.’”</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>Howard Marks, [http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/Risk%20Revisited%20Again.pdf “Risk Revisited Again”], memo from Chair of Oaktree, June 8, 2015</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-- </ins>Howard Marks, [http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/Risk%20Revisited%20Again.pdf “Risk Revisited Again”], memo from Chair of Oaktree, June 8, 2015</div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“[A]fter the 2012 presidential election, Nate Silver, Princeton’s Sam Wang, and other poll aggregators were hailed for correctly predicting all fifty state outcomes, but almost no one noted that a crude, across-the-board prediction of ‘no change’ … would have scored forty-eight out of fifty, which suggests that the many excited exclamations of ‘He called all fifty states!’ we heard at the time were a tad overwrought.”<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>“[A]fter the 2012 presidential election, Nate Silver, Princeton’s Sam Wang, and other poll aggregators were hailed for correctly predicting all fifty state outcomes, but almost no one noted that a crude, across-the-board prediction of ‘no change’ … would have scored forty-eight out of fifty, which suggests that the many excited exclamations of ‘He called all fifty states!’ we heard at the time were a tad overwrought.”<br></div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=22226&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Quotations */2018-08-14T15:35:29Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Quotations</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Mr. Slemrod [a public finance economist at the University of Michigan] also urged economists to talk in terms of ranges rather than point estimates when discussing how taxes affect the economy, to reflect the fact that these figures are simply educated guesses. But he understands why they don’t. 'Washington wants a number,' he said. “Washington doesn’t like confidence intervals.'" </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Mr. Slemrod [a public finance economist at the University of Michigan] also urged economists to talk in terms of ranges rather than point estimates when discussing how taxes affect the economy, to reflect the fact that these figures are simply educated guesses. But he understands why they don’t. 'Washington wants a number,' he said. “Washington doesn’t like confidence intervals.'" </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right>[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/15/upshot/how-economists-forecast-growth-under-jeb-bush-by-guessing.html?ref=business "How economists forecast growth under Jeb Bush?"], <I>New York Times</I>,September 14, 2015</div></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div align=right><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">in: </ins>[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/15/upshot/how-economists-forecast-growth-under-jeb-bush-by-guessing.html?ref=business "How economists forecast growth under Jeb Bush?"], <I>New York Times</I>,September 14, 2015</div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Bill Peterson</div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=21036&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Forsooth */2016-08-16T02:36:05Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Forsooth</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Margaret Cibes</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">"Donnellan added that the USGS' 85% probability and her 99.9% chance still favored a big earthquake in the next three years. 'If an earthquake happens in three years, we're both right,' Donnellan said."</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><div align=right>in: [http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-quake-prediction-20151023-story.html Why a 99.9% earthquake prediction is 100% controversial], ''Los Angeles Times'', 23 October 2015 </div></ins></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Vitamin C and cancer==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Vitamin C and cancer==</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=21017&oldid=prevBill Peterson at 18:18, 12 August 20162016-08-12T18:18:58Z<p></p>
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<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Quotations==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Mr. Slemrod [a public finance economist at the University of Michigan] also urged economists to talk in terms of ranges rather than point estimates when discussing how taxes affect the economy, to reflect the fact that these figures are simply educated guesses. But he understands why they don’t. 'Washington wants a number,' he said. “Washington doesn’t like confidence intervals.'" </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Mr. Slemrod [a public finance economist at the University of Michigan] also urged economists to talk in terms of ranges rather than point estimates when discussing how taxes affect the economy, to reflect the fact that these figures are simply educated guesses. But he understands why they don’t. 'Washington wants a number,' he said. “Washington doesn’t like confidence intervals.'" </div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=20982&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Bad graphic on Planned Parenthood */2016-08-11T19:14:37Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Bad graphic on Planned Parenthood</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Double-y-axis plots always have the potential to mislead, as the axis scales can be adjusted to exaggerate the correspondence in the line plots (see the [http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations Spurious Correlations] web site, which has been mentioned in several earlier issues of Chance News). The example above is especially bad in that in presents only two time points. Also, both variables <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">count </del>number of procedures, but the trick of using two axis scales creates the impression of a crossover point that has nothing to do with the data. </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Double-y-axis plots always have the potential to mislead, as the axis scales can be adjusted to exaggerate the correspondence in the line plots (see the [http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations Spurious Correlations] web site, which has been mentioned in several earlier issues of Chance News). The example above is especially bad in that in presents only two time points. Also, both variables <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">actually have the same units (</ins>number of procedures<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">)</ins>, but the trick of using two axis scales creates the impression of a crossover point that has nothing to do with the data. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>See [http://www.vox.com/2015/9/29/9417845/planned-parenthood-terrible-chart Whatever you think of Planned Parenthood, this is a terrible and dishonest chart] (''Vox'', 29 September 2015) for a useful redrawing of this graph that places the data in context:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>See [http://www.vox.com/2015/9/29/9417845/planned-parenthood-terrible-chart Whatever you think of Planned Parenthood, this is a terrible and dishonest chart] (''Vox'', 29 September 2015) for a useful redrawing of this graph that places the data in context:</div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_107&diff=20981&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Bad graphic on Planned Parenthood */2016-08-11T19:12:17Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Bad graphic on Planned Parenthood</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:12, 11 August 2016</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Double-y-axis plots always have the potential to mislead, as the axis scales can be adjusted to exaggerate the correspondence in the line plots (see the [http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations Spurious Correlations] web site, which has been mentioned in several earlier issues of Chance News). The example above is especially bad in that in presents only two time points. Also, both variables count number of procedures, but the <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">artifice separate </del>scales creates the impression of a crossover point that has nothing to do with the data. </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Double-y-axis plots always have the potential to mislead, as the axis scales can be adjusted to exaggerate the correspondence in the line plots (see the [http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations Spurious Correlations] web site, which has been mentioned in several earlier issues of Chance News). The example above is especially bad in that in presents only two time points. Also, both variables count number of procedures, but the <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">trick of using two axis </ins>scales creates the impression of a crossover point that has nothing to do with the data. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>See [http://www.vox.com/2015/9/29/9417845/planned-parenthood-terrible-chart Whatever you think of Planned Parenthood, this is a terrible and dishonest chart] (''Vox'', 29 September 2015) for a useful redrawing of this graph that places the data in context:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>See [http://www.vox.com/2015/9/29/9417845/planned-parenthood-terrible-chart Whatever you think of Planned Parenthood, this is a terrible and dishonest chart] (''Vox'', 29 September 2015) for a useful redrawing of this graph that places the data in context:</div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Peterson