Chance News 107: Difference between revisions

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"... I’ve listed the share of Democratic voters who identified as liberal, and as white, in the 39 states where the networks conducted exit polls during the 2008 Democratic primaries. Then I’ve multiplied the two numbers together to estimate the share of Democrats in each state who were both white and liberal...It
"... I’ve listed the share of Democratic voters who identified as liberal, and as white, in the 39 states where the networks conducted exit polls during the 2008 Democratic primaries. Then I’ve multiplied the two numbers together to estimate the share of Democrats in each state who were both white and liberal. ...It
would be better if the exit polls directly listed the number of white
would be better if the exit polls directly listed the number of white
liberals. Unfortunately, the exit polls do not provide this data, so
liberals. Unfortunately, the exit polls do not provide this data, so

Revision as of 20:37, 20 September 2015

Quotations

"Mr. Slemrod [a public finance economist at the University of Michigan] also urged economists to talk in terms of ranges rather than point estimates when discussing how taxes affect the economy, to reflect the fact that these figures are simply educated guesses. But he understands why they don’t. 'Washington wants a number,' he said. “Washington doesn’t like confidence intervals.'"

in: How economists forecast growth under Jeb Bush? By guessing, New York Times, 14 September 2015

Submitted by Bill Peterson


“If ten thousand people flip a coin, after ten flips the odds are there will be someone who has turned up heads every time. People will hail this man as a genius, with a natural ability to flip heads. Some idiots will actually give him money. This is exactly what happened to LTCM. But it’s obvious that LTCM didn’t know [bleep] about risk control. They were all charlatans.”

Nassam Nicholas Taleb, cited in The Quants, by Scott Patterson, 2010

Submitted by Margaret Cibes

Forsooth

The last edition of Chance News included a story on Lightning and the lottery, which is reminiscent of the following greeting card:

Lottery lightning.jpeg

Submitted by Alan Shuchat


"... I’ve listed the share of Democratic voters who identified as liberal, and as white, in the 39 states where the networks conducted exit polls during the 2008 Democratic primaries. Then I’ve multiplied the two numbers together to estimate the share of Democrats in each state who were both white and liberal. ...It would be better if the exit polls directly listed the number of white liberals. Unfortunately, the exit polls do not provide this data, so we have to live with an estimate instead."

--Nate Silver, in: Bernie Sanders could win Iowa and New Hampshire. Then lose everywhere else., FiveThirtyEight.com, 8 July 2015

Submitted by Peter Doyle

Item 1

Item 2