Sandbox: Difference between revisions
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*Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. | *Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. | ||
</blockquote> | </blockquote> | ||
Many people rate the second alternative as more likely. The Wikipedia page linked above quotes a famous response by Stephen J. Gould: | Many people rate the second alternative as more likely. The Wikipedia page linked above quotes a famous response by Stephen J. Gould that sums up the sentiment.: | ||
<blockquote>I am particularly fond of this example [the Linda problem] because I know that the [conjoint] statement is least probable, yet a little homunculus in my head continues to jump up and down, shouting at me—"but she can’t just be a bank teller; read the description.”</blockquote> | <blockquote>I am particularly fond of this example [the Linda problem] because I know that the [conjoint] statement is least probable, yet a little homunculus in my head continues to jump up and down, shouting at me—"but she can’t just be a bank teller; read the description.”</blockquote> | ||
Revision as of 13:54, 14 November 2013
The Linda Problem
The Linda Problem is a Kahneman and Tversky's famous illustration of the conjuction fallacy:
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which is of the following is more probable?
- Linda is a bank teller.
- Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
Many people rate the second alternative as more likely. The Wikipedia page linked above quotes a famous response by Stephen J. Gould that sums up the sentiment.:
I am particularly fond of this example [the Linda problem] because I know that the [conjoint] statement is least probable, yet a little homunculus in my head continues to jump up and down, shouting at me—"but she can’t just be a bank teller; read the description.”