Hi, Maryann. From my own work with high school teachers, I have found that
the best entry point for simulation-based inference is to introduce them to
two cases that are pretty accessible:
1. Using simulation to test a claim about a population proportion based on
a random sample from that population. Just simulate many, many samples of
that size under the assumption that the claim is true and record the value
of the sample proportion for each one in a dotplot. Then look where the
observed result falls in the simulated sampling distribution, and ask
whether the sample result is sufficiently surprising (far out in the tails
of the distribution) to provide convincing evidence against the claim.
Ideally, we'd have learners do this with a spinner or some other physical
device first before proceeding to technology, which would necessitate using
a fairly small sample size for practical reasons.
2. Using simulation to determine whether the difference between two
proportions is statistically significant in a randomized experiment.
Assume that there is no difference in the effects of the two treatments on
the subjects in the study (null hypothesis). Simulate re-doing the random
assignment of subjects to treatments many, many times, keeping each
subject's response (success or failure) the same as it was in the original
experiment. Each time, record the difference in proportions of successes
for the two groups on a dotplot. Then look where the observed result falls
in the simulated randomization distribution, and ask whether the observed
difference in proportions is sufficiently surprising (far out in the tails
of the distribution) to provide convincing evidence against the null
hypothesis. Ideally, we'd have learners do this with by shuffling and
dealing cards or some other physical device first before proceeding to
technology, which would necessitate using fairly small group sizes for
practical reasons.
There are great resources available from several members of this list that
could be used as the basis for these two distinct activities that would
introduce teachers to the different scope of inference for random sampling
and randomized experiments.
Daren Starnes
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Hello All,
As person who spends most of her summer working with high school teachers
on stats and probability content and creating lesson plans, which are used
in the next school year, I've followed this discussion eagerly.
High school teachers are relatively easily convinced that a large enough,
random sample is usually representative of the population. Convincing
teachers that one of these samples could be used to mimic the entire
population and then be utilized to generate more random samples is quite a
different thing. I am convinced of the bootstrapping process, but to leap
there immediately with teachers versus the more cumbersome routes discussed
in this chain of responses might cause serious distress.
Are there resources to help educate high school teachers (and myself
further) in regard to bootstrapping? Research and experience shows that
teachers with either omit or superficially enact contact that they feel is
beyond their current knowledge base.
Simulation, in general, has been daunting for high school teachers. Of 23
we worked with last summer, only 25% took the plunge with re-randomization.
However, the ones that did, thoroughly enjoyed the experience, as did
their students.
Best,
Maryann
*----------------------------------------*
*Maryann E. Huey*
*Mathematics and Computer Science*
*Drake University*
*515/271-2839 <515%2F271-2839>*
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